The Specter of Russian-Made Fighter Jets in Venezuela
May 05, 2005 15 09 GMT
Summary
Venezuela reportedly is looking to purchase Su-27 Flanker fighters from
Russia instead of the less-capable Mig-29SMT Fulcrums it previously
considered. This development would constitute a provocative move by
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez -- one that would have serious
implications in Latin America and beyond.
Analysis
Venezuela has expressed interest in acquiring two squadrons of Su-27
Flanker air-superiority fighters from Russia, Russian news agency RIA
Novosti reported May 4. The Venezuelans apparently are interested in
the base model Su-27, which has been out of production in Russia since
Sukhoi Corp. began producing the Su-30 variants for the export market.
If a contract for the reported $250 million deal is signed, the
aircraft -- 20 to 24 fighters -- would be transferred to the Venezuelan
air force (FAV) from the Russian air force inventory.
Venezuela's interest in the Su-27 is significant in that acquiring the
aircraft would make the FAV the most potent air force in South America
and the Caribbean. The Flanker has a much longer range than the
Mig-29SMT Fulcrum -- which Caracas also is considering purchasing from
Russia -- meaning it can operate much further from Venezuelan air
space. With a combat radius of nearly 1,000 miles, a Caracas-based
Su-27 could participate in dogfights over Colombia, Cuba, most of
Central America and the entire Caribbean Sea. Caracas' efforts to
acquire advanced weaponry will alter the security environment in Latin
America -- and give the United States more to ponder as it figures out
how to deal with Venezuela.
Whether the FAV chooses the MiG-29s, the Su-27s or both, the new
fighters will replace its aging F-16s, which the United States provided
in the early 1980s. The F-16s, which the FAV deploys in two squadrons
based at El Libertador air base in Maracay, spend most of their time on
the ground because of low serviceability. The U.S. government stopped
supplying the FAV with spare parts for its F-16s in 2001 after the
Chavez government suspended military relations with Washington.
Although the FAV has managed to keep some F-16s in the air despite
maintenance difficulties resulting from the embargo -- a point of pride
for the FAV -- the jets' long-term serviceability is in doubt.
In February, Caracas purchased 10 Mi-17 and Mi-26 helicopters and
100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles in a deal worth $120 million. Unlike
these purchases, primarily intended to support border and internal
security requirements, Su-27s would have implications far beyond
Venezuela's borders.
The Su-27 is a long-range, advanced fighter capable of deploying
powerful weapons. With even two squadrons of such jets, the FAV could
dominate the air forces of neighboring countries. In other words, it
would become the most powerful air force in Latin America, far
surpassing the capabilities of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Brazil.
Colombia always has eyed Venezuela with suspicion, but bilateral
relations have deteriorated since Chavez came to power. Colombian
President Alvaro Uribe Velez has struck a nonchalant pose publicly,
claiming he is not worried about the regional security implications of
Chavez's arms-buying spree. Colombian media, however, recently
disclosed an internal Defense Ministry memorandum that confirms Uribe
is quite concerned about the Venezuelan arms build up. The
administration of U.S. President George W. Bush also has voiced its
concerns repeatedly in Latin America, Madrid and Moscow.
Caracas initially had expressed interest in purchasing the MiG-29SMT
Fulcrum, which has a range of 465 miles if external fuel tanks are not
attached. The external tanks, which have a negative impact on the
fighter's performance, also take up space on the aircraft that could be
used for weapons. The Su-27's range on internal fuel alone is almost
twice that of the MiG-29. With no need to carry cumbersome external
tanks, the Flanker can participate in aerial combat with all of its
external stores stations available for missiles.
Meanwhile, in even considering the sale, Russia has a "weapon" with
which to exert geopolitical pressure on the United States. In response
to recent U.S. inroads along Russia's periphery, Moscow might be
deciding to muddy the waters elsewhere for the United States -- and
Venezuela, as a sore spot for Washington already, is a good launching
pad. Certainly, forcing the United States to channel its resources from
Central Asia and the Caucasus in order to counter Russian-caused
problems elsewhere would relieve Moscow of some U.S. pressure.
Russia had once hinted at supplying Tu-22M Backfire bombers to China,
but later backed off the sale. More recently, Moscow agreed to supply
Syria with the Strelets surface-to-air missile system, despite
objections from the United States and Israel. Of course, the Su-27 deal
could be called off, or scaled back like the Chinese Backfire deals
have been, but the political implications of the sale of Su-27s to a
regime that is openly hostile to Washington would keep Washington off
balance without a fighter going to Venezuela.
Relations between Caracas and Washington have deteriorated markedly
since Chavez came to power, especially as Venezuela moved closer to
Cuba, aligning its military planning with Havana's. In fact, U.S.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently said she considers
relations between Washington and Caracas beyond hope of improving. With
the United States beginning to refocus its attention to issues outside
the Middle East, Chavez believes his country could be targeted for U.S.
intervention.
Long-range, heavily armed Su-27s in the FAV's possession, however,
would complicate any U.S. military intervention in the region. Air
superiority -- gaining and maintaining total control of the air over
the battlefield -- is essential to U.S. military planning. In any U.S.
operation against Venezuela, the formidable defensive obstacle
presented by squadrons of Su-27s would have to be overcome before air
superiority could be achieved. Moreover, the Su-27's long range would
force U.S. air and naval units to operate further from Venezuelan
skies.
If Chavez can acquire surplus Russian air force Su-27s for less than
the cost of new MiG-29s, he certainly would get more bang for his buck,
which would help ease the fiscal strain of his rearmament program.
Combined with a huge militia reserve armed with new Kalashnikov and
older FAL rifles, the Su-27 would provide another layer of defense
between Chavez and Washington.
The specter of Chavez's air force operating the Su-27 would give
Washington -- and its allies in the region -- plenty to think about.
.
|
