The threat from Mexico
Political, economic unrest to force border security as No. 1 priority?
June 6, 2005
WASHINGTON – Ronald Reagan's defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger,
credited with engineering the demise of the Soviet Union, once
predicted – because of illegal immigration and social unrest south of
the border – the U.S. would be at war with Mexico by 2003.
As the U.S. becomes increasingly concerned about just those issues –
and one more, the growing power and violence of the drug cartels
operating in and around the border – some U.S. intelligence and
military analysts are dusting off Weinberger's "Operation Aztec"
battle plan for review.
Weinberger's scenario outlined a rapid three-pronged military invasion
designed to control domestic Mexican unrest and stem the influx of
millions of immigrants.
Likewise, in a 1994 Pentagon briefing paper dealing with "deployment
of U.S. troops in Mexico as a result of widespread economic and social
chaos," Donald E. Schultz, a professor of national security at the
U.S. Army's War College around the same time wrote: "A hostile
government could put U.S. investments in Mexico in danger, jeopardize
access to oil, produce a flood of political refugees and economic
migrants to the north."
Meanwhile, Mexican President Vicente Fox is indeed concerned about his
country's internal security. A few days ago, he summoned to Sinaloa a
meeting with top-level officials to discuss various issues of Mexican
national security.
The meeting was described by observers as a "top-level group to define
Mexican security actions." The president guided his group of experts
to draft within the next 90 days, a structure and mechanism proposal
on several critical security issues. He instructed the team to prepare
strategies to combat illegal arms build-ups, to fight small time drug
traders and to find ways to reduce drug addiction prevalence and money
laundering. According to the presidential spokesman Ruben Aguilar, Fox
instructed his top-level group to divide the upcoming 90 days into
30-, 60- and 90-day time spans.
Oddly, however, the border with the U.S. was a very low priority for
Fox and his advisers. They were concerned more with their own southern
borders with Belize and Guatemala, where Mexico faces its own illegal
immigration crisis.
It seems unavoidable that the U.S.-Mexico border is going to be the
big issue in the 2006 mid-term elections in the U.S., whether or not
it is a major issue for Mexican politicians vying for political office
next year:
The Zetas, a group of U.S.-trained commandos who turned from drug
interdiction to drug cartel protection, have killed hundreds along the
border since January, raising concerns even from the U.S. Justice
Department, which seldom likes to acknowledge any problems with
Mexico.
The illegal immigration wave continues unabated with no plans in sight
from the Bush administration. Members of Congress from both parties
are currently planning to introduce bills in the coming weeks to
militarize the border.
While the Zetas are concerned with cross-border drug-running
operations, other criminal gangs, some just as deadly, run the people
smuggling operations. And there are growing concerns in Washington
about the ability of terrorist groups to buy their way into the U.S.
through these contacts.
Illegal immigration in the U.S. far outpaces legal immigration,
causing economic and cultural problems, as well as security issues.
Experts on Mexican security and crime say Fox, preparing for the 2006
presidential campaign, is definitely worried about deteriorating
relations with the U.S., particularly with U.S. border-states.
Fox is facing a big political challenge from the growing power and
popularity of Mexico City's mayor, Anres Manuel Lopez Obrador,
nicknamed AMLO. On May 24, Obrador came out with a remarkable show of
force, bringing into the streets 1.2 million non-violent demonstrators
to protest attempts by the president to curb his candidacy through
judicial acrobatics. The demonstration's dimension, the way it
reverberated across the country, and the apparent re-organizing of
indigenous and left-wing guerrilla fighters and guerrilla
sympathizers, sent shockwaves throughout the Mexican oligarchy.
More than 40 Percent of Mexicans live below the poverty line. Although
Mexican officials tend to brag only 3.2 percent of the population is
unemployed, CIA experts explain that more than 25 percent of those
labeled as working are in reality, and according to any western
standards, severely under employed. When these data are added to many
other ailments in the country's socio-political reality it is no
wonder the mass's discontent, unrest and instability is about to
burst.
Security experts claim a variety of groups and organizations plan to
play an active role in the coming election campaign, hoping to bring
down the Fox administration as well as the present military and police
establishments. These include the:
Aboriginal Zapatista National Liberation Army, EZLN, which in the 90s
waged war on the state, and then negotiated a cease-fire with Fox's
predecessor.
The Popular Liberation Army, EPR, based mainly in the Guerreo State.
Commando Jaramillista Moreense de 23 Mayo, also known as the CJM23M.
An illusive group which so far surfaced mainly through leaflets, press
releases and threats against the state.
More groups mentioned in the May-June 2001 publication of the U.S.
Army Combined Arms Center Military Review are:
The People's Revolutionary Army, EPR,
The Revolutionary Army of Insurgent Peoples. ERPI,
The People's Revolutionary Armed Forces, FARP,
The Villist Revolutionary Army of the People, VRAP, and
The Clandestine Revolutionary Army of the Poor, CRAP.
Defense Intelligence Agency analysts have recently added accumulating
information on jihadi groups establishing shop in Mexico City and
other urban centers. An FBI wanted list for drug cartel bosses placed
Ramon Eduardo Arellano-Felix at the top, describing him as extremely
violent and probably with extensive narco-terror connection, setting
him next to terrorist Osama bin Laden on the FBI 10 most wanted list.
This by itself illuminates the appalling scope of the problem.
The Sinaloa meeting deliberately avoided dealing with so-called
"mega-problems" and instead focused more on relatively petty local
crimes. This is an indication the Fox administration is planning to
use the infamous traditional Mexican political solution of joining
forces with drug cartels despite its malignant ripple affect on the
Mexican and even U.S. societies.
The Mexican and the U.S. administrations, each government for reasons
of its own, are doing their utmost to dodge issues around the
border-crossing epidemic from Mexico to the U.S. As politicians in
Washington are trying to avoid coping with public opinion or evade
voicing support to such initiatives as the Minuteman Project and the
Yuma Patriots, these very issues do not escape the eyes of the
Department of Homeland Security and immigration authorities.
The above data when added to the overall, possibly shaky, political
situation in Mexico, and with Fox's open disregard for mutual border
respect, the U.S. is faced with a dangerously looming confrontation
with her supposedly friendly neighbor in the south.
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