From: (classy)
yangli@fas.harvard.edu (Yang Li) wrote in message
news:<bb8b17e6.0311271727.5f4df13c@posting.google.com>...
A question that I, and a lot of science fiction writers, have wondered
about - who, if anyone, would survive an all-out nuclear war between
superpowers? For unimportant reasons, a major conflict breaks out
between the Soviet Union and the US in the 1980's. An all-out ICBM
and SLBM attack is launched against the US. The US responds with
complete retaliation against all pre-programmed targets. What's left
of the USSR responds in kind. And so on until silos and submarines of
both sides have gone through the entire launch procedures or are
destroyed.
After all-out nuclear war, is there going to be nuclear winter and the
end of the human race? Are there still going to be survivors in
Eurasia or North America, and which areas of the world would be left
untouched? Who (if anyone) rises to power after the apocalypse?
-Y
Found this timeline on the web, it might be what you were looking for.
It centers mainly on the effects in Texas...
The Effects of a Global Thermonuclear War
4th edition: escalation in 1988
by Wm. Robert Johnston
last updated 18 August 2003
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuclearwar1.html
INTRODUCTION: The following is an approximate description of the
effects of a global nuclear war. For the purposes of illustration it
is assumed that a war resulted in mid-1988 from military conflict
between the Warsaw Pact and NATO. This is in some ways a worst-case
scenario (total numbers of strategic warheads deployed by the
superpowers peaked about this time; the scenario implies a greater
level of military readiness; and impact on global climate and crop
yields are greatest for a war in August). Some details, such as the
time of attack, the events leading to war, and the winds affecting
fallout patterns, are only meant to be illustrative. This applies also
to the global geopolitical aftermath, which represents the author's
efforts at intelligent speculation.
There is much public misconception concerning the physical effects of
nuclear war--some of it motivated by politics. Certainly the
predictions described here are uncertain: for example, casualty
figures in the U.S. are accurate perhaps to within 30% for the first
few days, but the number of survivors in the U.S. after one year could
differ from these figures by as much as a factor of four. Nonetheless,
there is no reasonable basis for expecting results radically different
from this description--for example, there is no scientific basis for
expecting the extinction of the human species. Note that the most
severe predictions concerning nuclear winter have now been evaluated
and discounted by most of the scientific community.
Sources supplying the basis for this description include the U.S.
Defense Nuclear Agency manual on nuclear weapon effects, scientific
papers describing computer simulations of long-term effects published
by groups ranging from the U.S. government to left-leaning scientific
organizations, and research by a similar variety of groups on weapons
characteristics and strategy.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 July 1988: Gorbachev is killed when his plane is attacked by a
Stinger surface-to-air missile in East Germany; military heads take
control in Moscow, accuse the CIA of responsibility for the
assassination, impose a news blackout in the U.S.S.R., and send troops
to East Germany and Poland to impose martial law.
15 July 1988: West Germans propose intervention in East Germany
following reports of violence there; clashes occur along the border
between the two Germanys; NATO puts its forces in West Germany on
alert.
19 July 1988: A massive Soviet invasion of West Germany begins: NATO
airfields are attacked by missiles with chemical warheads as tanks
pour across the border. U.S. nuclear forces are put on alert:
Bergstrom Air Force Base (AFB) near Austin receives 4 B-52 bombers
dispersed from their home base.
31 July 1988: With Soviet forces 200 kilometers (km) (120 miles)
inside northern West Germany, NATO issues a vague ultimatum to the
U.S.S.R.
1 August 1988: NATO nuclear weapon depots are attacked by conventional
and chemical weapons; ongoing naval combat claims a Soviet ballistic
missile submarine in the Arctic Ocean.
4 August 1988: NATO threatens the use of tactical nuclear weapons
against Soviet forces advancing towards urban areas in western West
Germany.
6:00 AM CDT 5 August 1988: Soviet attacks begin against U.S. military
satellites: two ground-based laser facilities are used to disable
intelligence satellites in low Earth orbit and damage or harass
sensors on those in higher orbits. "Killer" satellites are launched
and will reach target satellites over the next few hours. Some of the
Soviet civilian population is being moved to bomb shelters, subway
tunnels, and out of cities. In West Germany invading Soviet forces
launch some tactical nuclear weapons against NATO forces.
10:00 AM CDT 5 August 1988: NATO forces begin launching tactical
nuclear weapons against Soviet forces in West Germany and bases in
East Germany. North Korea invades South Korea while launching chemical
weapon strikes against U.S. and South Korean forces.
12:00 noon CDT 5 August 1988: Nuclear hostilities on a global scale
begin as the U.S.S.R. launches a preemptive strike. Over 1,000 Soviet
missiles--carrying 5,400 warheads--are launched as a counterforce
strike against the U.S. and its NATO allies.
Current population figures are: Rio Grande Valley--690,000; Travis
County--550,000; Texas--16,800,000; the United States--245,000,000;
the world--5,150,000,000.
12:05 PM CDT: Nuclear weapons are detonated aboard several Soviet
satellites in low Earth orbit over the U.S. and other areas,
generating electromagnetic pulses (EMP). This devastates electronics
in these areas. Most unhardened computers and related equipment are
rendered useless, destroying communication, information, and power
supply networks on a nationwide scale. Transportation vehicles using
electronics are inoperable. Many satellites are disabled. While few
human casualties have occurred so far, much of the civilian elements
of a continent-spanning society are devastated. For most American
civilians this is the only warning of the coming attack they will
receive: no effective civil defense program exists.
U.S. strategic bombers begin leaving their bases. This includes 25
B-52s and 5 B-1Bs in Texas, with four of these B-52s leaving Bergstrom
AFB near Austin. These 30 bombers are carrying 400 nuclear bombs and
missiles.
12:10 PM CDT: NATO missiles in Europe (U.S., British, and French
weapons) are launched against Warsaw Pact targets. This includes U.S.
Pershing II and Gryphon missiles, most of which were not yet retired
under the INF treaty.
Soviet submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) warheads begin
reaching targets in Texas and other parts of the U.S. Over the next 15
minutes 55 SLBM warheads succeed in reaching targets in Texas out of
74 launched (the rest were on missiles that malfunctioned early in
flight). In Travis County, a 1.5-megaton (1 mt equals the explosive
energy of 1,000,000 tons of TNT) warhead detonates 2.5 km (1.5 miles)
over Bergstrom AFB. Over the next few minutes ten warheads, each
between 200 kilotons and 500 kilotons (1,000 kt equals 1 mt) detonate
over Bergstrom and in a pattern extending 100 km (60 miles) to the
north, west, and east--this in an attempt to destroy the four escaping
bombers.
Each explosion produces a fireball which radiates intense light
(flash) for about 10 seconds: all exposed combustible material ignites
up to ranges of 3 to 9 km (2 to 5.5 miles); second degree burns to
exposed skin and fires are produced up to 6.5 to 18.5 km (4 to 11.5
miles) away. The atmospheric shock wave (blast) from each explosion
causes partial or complete destruction of all buildings within 1.5 to
4.5 km (1 to 3 miles) and causes moderate damage and 50% injuries or
deaths at 5.5 to 15 km (3.5 to 9.5 miles) in the 10 to 40 seconds
following detonation. (These figures represent the variation among
200-kt to 1.5-mt warheads exploded in the air or on the ground.)
Severe damage and fires result in much of Austin.
Immediate nuclear radiation from the weapons being used is generally
absorbed by the atmosphere before it reaches people surviving the
flash and blast. (This radiation is only important with small nuclear
weapons such as the bombs dropped on Japan in World War II or the
tactical nuclear weapons being used in Europe. Delayed radiation from
fallout is a different matter, however.)
12:15 PM CDT: The U.S. launches intercontinental ballistic missiles
(ICBMs) against the U.S.S.R. These are launched from underground silos
in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska,
and Missouri. Some SLBMs are launched at this time as well.
12:25 PM CDT: The U.S.S.R. launches most remaining nuclear forces,
attacking cities and other targets in the U.S. and Western Europe as
well as mainland China.
Antiballistic missiles (ABMs) with nuclear warheads are being launched
to defend Moscow from incoming warheads. Throughout the U.S.S.R.
several types of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) are also being used
against incoming nuclear warheads--occasionally with success.
12:30 PM CDT: Soviet ICBM warheads begin reaching U.S. targets. NORAD
headquarters near Colorado Springs receives a few 20-mt warheads: the
ground shock produced by each one attains 7.3 on the Richter scale.
U.S. submarines begin launching SLBMs against the U.S.S.R. In Texas,
80,000 people have already died.
Altogether, over 1,000 tons of debris from Soviet ballistic missiles
will fall over the U.S.; much will burn up in the atmosphere, but some
larger objects will hit the ground with energy equivalent to their own
weight in TNT.
12:35 PM CDT: Another wave of Soviet warheads arrives in Texas: 45 of
the 53 ICBM warheads targeted in Texas actually detonate successfully.
In Travis County, a 550-kt warhead detonates on the ground at the
former site of Bergstrom AFB, adding to the devastation in Austin. In
the Rio Grande Valley, a 550-kt warhead detonates on the ground at the
Raymondville Coast Guard station and a second one two minutes later;
Raymondville is destroyed.
With Soviet warheads minutes away, Israel launches nuclear missiles
and nuclear-armed aircraft against capitals and military targets of
most other Middle Eastern nations.
12:50 PM CDT: A massive barrage by U.S. SLBMs mostly overwhelms the
Moscow ABM system; American, British, French, and Chinese nuclear
warheads targeted within 100 km (60 miles) of Moscow total over 500.
About 200 reach their targets (although only about 40 were lost to
ABMs): while most Soviet leaders in underground shelters survive (the
primary goal of the local ABM system), most civilians in the subway
tunnels and other shelters will die over the next few hours.
The Moscow area ranks with the six ICBM fields in the U.S. as the
hardest hit areas of the world. An average of 350 warheads detonate in
each ICBM field, each producing a crater 350 m (400 yards) across; a
total of 100,000 sq. km (40,000 sq. mi.) is devoid of life. Out of
1,000 ICBM silos, 100 still had ICBMs; now six are left usable.
The nuclear weapons that have reached Texas so far were directed
against U.S. military forces and capabilities. Although this attack
did not specifically target the civilian population, it has so far
killed 800,000 and injured 3,000,000 people in Texas.
1:00 PM CDT 5 August: A third strike reaches Texas, with 146 warheads
launched. Two 750-kt warheads detonate over Austin. In the Rio Grande
Valley, a 1.1-mt warhead detonates over Brownsville, three 350-kt
warheads detonate around McAllen, and 550-kt warheads are groundburst
in Harlingen and at Cameron County Airport. Massive fires and severe
blast damage occur throughout all of these metropolitan areas.
This concludes most of the nuclear war in Texas: 273 warheads were
fired at 233 targets, and 215 detonated successfully, with a total
yield of 128 megatons (about 40 times the explosive force of all
conventional bombs and shells used in World War II). In addition,
about 5 off-course warheads struck randomly in Texas. At this point
3,500,000 Texans have been killed.
2:00 PM CDT: About 5% of the land area in Texas is burning. In a few
areas conditions permit firestorms to develop. In contrast to the
World War II atomic bombings in Japan, continuous fire areas sometimes
cover hundreds of square km (or sq. mi.), preventing survivors from
escaping. Fires cover about 700,000 sq. km (270,000 sq. mi.) in the
United States, 250,000 sq. km (100,000 sq. mi.) in the U.S.S.R. and
180,000 sq. km (70,000 sq. mi.) in Europe. Scattered or continuous
fires rage across more than one-third of the area of several states,
including North Dakota, Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland, Rhode Island,
Connecticut, and Massachusetts.
3:00 PM CDT: Intense naval combat between U.S. and Soviet ships and
submarines includes the use of tactical nuclear weapons. U.S. naval
superiority has been offset by Soviet naval nuclear superiority: U.S.
ships are being destroyed by nuclear cruise missiles and nuclear
torpedoes. By the end of the day the superpowers will have lost over
100 vessels altogether.
Since most major dams in the U.S. have been destroyed by nuclear
explosions, flooding is progressing downstream from these reservoirs.
Some rivers particularly affected are the Missouri, Colorado, and
Tennessee Rivers.
5:00 PM CDT: The mushroom clouds from nuclear explosions have drifted
100 to 300 km (60 to 180 mi.) downwind, frequently forming the leading
edge of large smoke plumes. In the darkness beneath these plumes,
temperatures have dropped noticeably.
Vaporized soil and other material, mixed with radioactive bomb
residues, settles to the ground in areas where mushroom clouds pass
overhead: this is fallout. Immediately downwind of groundbursts,
radiation from fallout may be severe enough for exposed persons to
already suffer ill effects. The black rain occurring beneath many
clouds is radioactive--sometimes enough to burn the skin after
prolonged contact.
Smoke downwind of urban fires is also hazardous. The blasts and fires
have consumed 70% of the world's industrial capacity. Toxic chemicals
have been released in large amounts.
7:00 PM CDT: Soviet bombers are delivering weapons against U.S. cities
and other targets, including high-yield bombs and long-range cruise
missiles. None of these targets are in Texas, however. The largest
individual weapons used in the war are a couple of 50-mt Soviet bombs
dropped in China: craters 2 km (1.3 mi.) across are produced, and
severe or moderate damage is produced in an area up to 100 km (60
miles) across.
NATO and Warsaw Pact tactical nuclear weapons are being used by the
hundreds along the front in West Germany. Missiles and aircraft have
been launched against most cities and military targets in Europe, and
nuclear combat has degenerated to disorganized use of short-range
systems, especially missiles and nuclear artillery shells. U.S. Green
Berets are crossing enemy lines carrying the smallest nuclear weapons
to be used: these atomic demolition munitions are used to destroy
bridges and similar targets and have explosive yields as low as 10
tons of TNT equivalent (somewhat more than the truck bomb that
destroyed the Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983).
9:00 PM CDT: Some bombers from Texas are delivering their weapons to
Soviet soil, having survived Soviet air defense forces (many using
nuclear-tipped anti-aircraft missiles). About half of the weapons
carried by Texas bombers actually reach their targets (amounting to
200 warheads with a total yield of 40 mt). Nearly all of these weapons
have selectable explosive yields, and usually a yield much lower than
the maximum option is used. Only ten of these bombers manage to reach
friendly territory afterwards, and they are generally forced to make
emergency landings: the U.S., for instance, has less than 100
surviving runways capable of handling B-52s.
12:00 midnight CDT 5/6 August 1988: The nuclear exchange is generally
over. In the U.S. 5,800 warheads detonated totaling 3,900 mt. Soviet
and NATO weapons successfully used in Europe numbered 3,300 (1,200 mt)
(excluding tactical weapons). About 6,100 warheads (most of them
American, but some Chinese, British, and French) exploded in the
U.S.S.R. with a total yield of 1,900 mt. Mainland China (P.R.C.)
received 900 (detonating) warheads (1,300 mt) from its northern
neighbor. Other areas receiving at least a dozen warheads include
Canada, North and South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Greenland, Puerto Rico,
India, Israel, Australia, Guam, Cuba, Syria, and Egypt. Hundreds of
other nuclear weapons have been used in naval combat, in troop combat
in West Germany and along the U.S.S.R./P.R.C. border, and in defending
the Soviet Union from nuclear attack. About 50% of the global
strategic and theater nuclear arsenal has been used. About 10% was
launched but did not reach a target and 30% was destroyed on the
ground. Altogether, World War III has involved the detonation of
18,000 warheads with a total yield of 8,500 mt. Including tactical
weapons, there were 67,000 nuclear weapons in the world a day ago;
now, there are 10,000 left.
In Texas 6,400,000 have been killed (38% of its original population).
Of the 10,400,000 survivors, 3,000,000 have severe injuries and
2,000,000 have lesser injuries. In the Rio Grande Valley 340,000 have
been killed (49%) and 90,000 injured (13%); in Travis County over
400,000 are dead (75%). In the U.S. about 110,000,000 people have died
altogether, with the 135,000,000 survivors including 30,000,000
injured. In the U.S.S.R. about 40,000,000 have been killed out of a
pre-war population of 285,000,000. Mainland China has had 100,000,000
killed out of a population of 1,090,000,000. Examples of other
countries: United Kingdom, 20,000,000 killed (out of 57,000,000);
Denmark, 2,700,000 killed (out of 5,100,000); Australia, 3,000,000
killed (out of 16,000,000). In Mexico over 3,000,000 have been killed,
mostly in cities on the border with the U.S. Throughout the world
about 400,000,000 have died.
9:00 AM CDT 6 August: Survivors in urban areas are having little
success at finding medical help. For the United States as a whole,
hospital beds in surviving hospitals total 80,000, while severe
injuries total 20,000,000. About 9,000,000 people in the U.S. have
severe burns on much of their bodies, while only 200 beds in burn care
facilities survive in the country. Many remaining hospitals lack even
emergency power, due to the EMP attacks. The vast number of injuries
force doctors and nurses to try to ignore patients that cannot be
saved or have non-life threatening injuries. Many survivors in urban
areas are in the process of fleeing to neighboring areas in search of
medical care and to escape fires; this puts them in the open, often
exposed to fallout.
Midnight CDT 6/7 August: Israel is being attacked by Egypt, Jordan,
and Syria. About one-third of Israel's military forces survived the
Soviet nuclear attack; they are now occasionally using nuclear
artillery shells against attacking troops. Other Arab states are
preparing to join the campaign.
The situation is tense between India and Pakistan: both nations have a
handful of small atomic bombs, and India was attacked with Chinese
nuclear weapons. Meanwhile civil war is developing in South Africa and
various other nations.
Early 7 August: Deposition of fallout in Texas is generally over with,
and 80% of the radiation that will result from this fallout has
already been emitted. Fire-produced pollutants are noticeable
throughout the state--including smoke, smog, and various hazardous
chemicals--with urban areas still burning.
In those parts of Texas affected by fallout, radiation sickness is
already evident in many survivors, including symptoms of nausea,
vomiting, and skin burns. In a few small areas fallout has been severe
enough to already have killed many of those exposed, by causing
radiation damage to the central nervous system. Survivors are having
difficulty dealing with injuries, lack of food and medical help, and
emotional shock.
The U.S. government is essentially gone, as well as most state
governments; only two state capital cities survive (the missiles
targeted on them malfunctioned). The Rio Grande Valley is receiving
refugees from Mexico--survivors of devastated areas seeking help.
10 August: The smoke clouds in the northern hemisphere are spreading
to produce a band around the world covering the primary participating
nations. Large amounts of particles in the atmosphere include 1,500
million tons of dust, 25 million tons of smoke from vegetation, and 80
million tons of smoke from cities and other manmade sources. This last
type of smoke has the greatest impact: smoke from petroleum and
petroleum products is particularly effective at absorbing sunlight.
Altogether, about 0.4 cubic km (0.1 cu. mi.) of dust and smoke is in
the stratosphere.
Typical sunlight levels in Texas are comparable to an
vercast day; in
some areas, smoke from large continuing fires reduces mid-day light
levels to that of twilight. The average temperature in Texas is 22° C
(72° F), compared to 29° C (85° F) a week ago.
12 August: About 90% of the radiation that will result from fallout in
Texas has been emitted. The average radiation dose in Texas is about
500 rem; by comparison, a dose of 100 rem in less than a week causes
radiation sickness in half of people exposed; 50% of people exposed to
450 rem in a short period will die within 30 days; and a dose of 1,500
rem will kill nearly all people exposed within 10 days. Persons who
stayed indoors the whole week generally cut their dose by 70%; staying
in designated areas of marked fallout shelters would reduce dosage by
99%.
For the entire U.S., the average dose in the open from fallout is
1,200 rem; by comparison the average for the Soviet Union is 150 rem.
The difference comes from the larger average yield of Soviet weapons,
the larger size of the Soviet Union, the frequently "dirtier" nature
of Soviet weapons, and the fact that more Soviet warheads are exploded
on the ground (increasing fallout). For Europe the average dose in the
open is 500 rem. This fallout is of course unevenly distributed: in
the U.S. the dose exceeds 1,800 rem in about 8% of the land area, and
the dose exceeds 500 rem in about 1% of the U.S.S.R.
In most of the areas affected by fallout, radiation is diminished
sufficiently to be of little concern to people there. However, areas
downwind of nuclear strikes on nuclear power plants are still
dangerous--in some locations 100 km (60 mi.) downwind of such strikes,
radiation levels are high enough to kill in 2 days. Radiation levels
are still high enough to cause sickness from 2-days' exposure in areas
up to 500 km (300 mi) downwind of the ICBM fields.
Delayed fallout is being deposited throughout the northern hemisphere:
this is from radioactive material launched into the stratosphere,
falling over a larger area for months to come. The health effect from
this, however, will not be noticeable against the background of other
problems.
20 August: In the northern hemisphere, smoke in the lower atmosphere
is subsiding (although smoke in the upper atmosphere still absorbs
much sunlight). Unusual weather includes windy conditions in some
coastal areas. Fog has developed over the oceans and smog envelops the
interior of North America and Eurasia. Fallout from the northern
hemisphere is now reaching the southern hemisphere. Radiation levels
there will peak at ten times the natural background levels--this will
not pose a health risk, but it produces fear in many countries.
Many persons suffering radiation sickness are now showing additional
symptoms: hair loss and leukopenia. (Those that survive to the end of
the year will regrow their hair.)
Combat continues in central Europe, mostly without tactical nuclear
weapons. The position of the front is little changed, with forces on
either side unable or unwilling to budge.
25 August: The ozone layer has been cut in half over the northern
midlatitudes. In spite of this, nearly all of the Earth's surface is
receiving less solar ultraviolet radiation than before the war: smoke
in the northern hemisphere blocks most sunlight, and as this smoke was
initially injected into the atmosphere much ozone was displaced into
the southern hemisphere. This situation will change.
Disorganized forces from Iraq, Iran, and Libya are beginning to join
the Arab battle against Israel. North Korean forces have overrun many
remaining cities in South Korea. Civil war has developed throughout
China: with much of the government and military wiped out by Soviet
nuclear attack, surviving communist forces are under attack and ethnic
conflicts are developing. Tibet has declared independence. Ethnic
conflict is also breaking out among surviving populations in some
parts of the Soviet Union and Europe.
Naval combat between NATO and Soviet vessels has slackened. Before the
war the U.S. had fifteen aircraft carriers; three were destroyed in
port on the first day and five more have been destroyed by Soviet
naval nuclear weapons. A number of submarines survive with ballistic
or cruise missiles.
Hardly any satellites in Earth orbit are functioning. EMP bursts
disabled most civilian satellites. Debris from anti-satellite attacks
is dispersing and striking more satellites, while particle radiation
from nuclear explosions above the atmosphere is trapped in the Earth's
magnetic field, making near-Earth space lethal to men and satellites
for months or years to come.
1 September: Light levels and temperatures in the northern hemisphere
have reached their lows. Temperatures in the lower stratosphere (an
altitude of 10 km/6 mi., where most atmospheric smoke is) are around
15° C (50° F)--this is 40° C (70° F) warmer than normal. At the
ground, temperatures vary little with altitude (mountains are
sometimes warmer than adjacent lowlands), but they vary significantly
with distance inland. The interiors of North America and Eurasia are
on average 10° C (18° F) cooler than normal--corresponding to normal
temperatures for October or November. In west and north Texas
temperatures are around 17° C (62° F); near the coast it is nearer 22°
C (72° F). In the midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere sunlight is
25% or less of normal--sometimes insufficient for net plant growth.
This helps reduce the formation of hurricanes this season.
At this point 9,000,000 Texans and a total of 140,000,000 Americans
have died.
Mid-September 1988: Epidemics are developing among surviving
populations, particularly food poisoning, dysentery, and typhoid.
Displaced populations, including many injured, are particularly
affected; those with radiation sickness are particularly vulnerable,
since radiation sickness involves damage to the immune system:
susceptibility to disease for those is increased by a factor of 2 to
5. In some locations outbreaks of disease are a consequence of the use
of biological weapons.
Early October 1988: Many crops are withering throughout the
midlatitudes in the northern hemisphere. Sunlight, temperatures, and
rainfall are all below normal; in many areas concentrations of ozone,
smog, and other pollutants in the lower atmosphere are still high
enough to afflict plants; and in restricted areas plants have suffered
from fallout. This is particularly true in the American Midwest. About
200,000 se. km (80,000 sq. mi.) in the U.S. is still radioactive
enough to cause radiation sickness after two weeks' exposure.
At this point about 580,000 have died in the Rio Grande Valley (84% of
the original population) and 40,000 are injured (6%); of Travis
County's pre-war population, only 50,000 survive (9%)--most of whom
have fled to neighboring areas. About 2,000,000 have died from fallout
in Texas now, bringing the death toll to 10,000,000. Of the 6,800,000
survivors, 2,000,000 are injured and 2,000,000 are suffering radiation
sickness (these two groups overlap). A total of 160,000,000 Americans
have died, or 65% of the pre-war population; in the Soviet Union
90,000,000 have died. The death toll in the United Kingdom is
30,000,000 and in Denmark is 3,300,000. World population is now
4,300,000,000.
November 1988: The ozone layer in the southern hemisphere is now 5%
depleted. The effect of this will not be noticed, however, since it is
less than natural variations.
December 1988: Crop failures throughout the third world have caused
famines in many areas and have also encouraged civil unrest. India has
collapsed into civil war. Having devastated Israel, Arab nations are
in chaos: the Middle East was heavily dependent on the Western nations
economically. Surviving Taiwanese forces are participating in the
civil war in mainland China.
Some third world countries, particularly Latin American countries, are
launching raids on U.S. coastal areas by sea. These military task
forces scavenge and steal what they can find, from raw materials and
food to equipment for industrial, military, and agricultural use.
Surviving industrial facilities on the coasts, particularly the
Pacific and Gulf coasts, are targeted. A couple of raiding parties
have visited the Port of Brownsville's former location and surrounding
areas but found little of interest.
In the United States, exposure is a serious problem; the only source
of heating for most survivors is wood fires.
March 1989: Temperatures in the northern hemisphere are 4° C (2° F)
below normal on average. This will shorten growing seasons and prolong
agricultural disruptions. Before the war Japan was heavily dependent
on food imports; now even fishing in neighboring waters is still
unproductive. In Japan 30,000,000 starved to death this winter.
Surviving Japanese military forces have waged attacks as far as
Australia in search of food sources.
The Midwestern U.S., formerly where most of the nation's grain was
produced, received the greatest share of the fallout from strikes on
ICBM fields; about half the rural population in this area escaped
immediate effects but was killed by fallout. With modern farming
technology unavailable, farming this year will be subsistence farming.
The Mississippi River now reaches the Gulf of Mexico 300 km (200 mi.)
west of its former mouth. Over the next few years much of former New
Orleans will sink below sea level.
Some peat bogs in the northern Soviet Union ignited by the nuclear war
are still slowly burning; some will continue to burn for a couple of
years.
April 1989: Hundreds of thousands of Mexican refugees have come north
hoping to find food. The population of the southwestern U.S. was
relatively concentrated in urban areas; with these destroyed, Mexicans
will soon represent a majority of the area's population. Violence
often occurs when they encounter communities of survivors. Communities
in the U.S. faring better than average include survivalist communities
in the Northwest and Mormon communities in the Utah area.
May 1989: Radiation hazards from fallout-stricken areas continue to
diminish. In the U.S. about 10,000 sq. km (4,000 sq. mi.) is still
radioactive enough for two weeks' exposure to cause radiation
sickness. Over 90% of this area was contaminated by fallout from
strikes on nuclear reactors. This includes about 400 sq. km (150 sq.
mi.) in Texas.
July 1989: Wildfires are recurring in the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
Fires especially sweep through the vast areas where fallout killed
vegetation. This includes strips of land extending hundreds of km (or
mi.) from strikes on nuclear reactor sites, often carrying
radioactivity into the air again.
Since the war, natural processes have begun to restore the ozone
layer. In the northern hemisphere the ozone layer is 40% depleted,
although localized depletions have sometimes been worse. The resultant
increase in ultraviolet radiation has reduced plant growth and crop
yields and made it easier to get sunburn. In the southern hemisphere
ozone depletion is still around 5%.
August 1989: Disease has ravaged the surviving population in the U.S.
About 30% of survivors have been afflicted with one or more of the
following: dysentery, food poisoning, viral gastroenteritis, typhoid,
influenza, and pneumonia. These diseases have killed about 10,000,000
in the past year. Bubonic plague has broken out, killing nearly
1,000,000 so far and spreading to Mexico. Starvation is also a major
cause of death: total food production in the U.S. in the past year was
about 2% of that for the previous year.
Famines are occurring throughout the third world--not from nuclear
winter but from the social and technological collapse of agriculture.
Much of the third world supplemented its agricultural capacity with
fertilizers, insecticides, and food imports from the West. Political
chaos in many areas and disruption of supply networks has also
disrupted production. Food production in the third world in 1989 will
be below half that of 1987.
Surviving Americans now number 45,000,000, including 4,000,000 Texans.
A few million surviving Americans are permanently sterile due to
radiation exposure. World population is now 3,300,000,000.
August 1991: The Earth's atmosphere has been quite nearly purged of
soot and dust. Slightly cooler conditions persist due to large amounts
of nitrogen oxides in the upper atmosphere. The primary impact is
slightly shorter growing seasons in northern areas.
Now that third world countries are recovering agriculturally and
beginning to reduce famine, they are being stricken by epidemics.
Bubonic plague has spread to Latin America and is appearing in Europe.
Africa, which has been particularly ravaged by war and famine, is now
seeing the spread of various diseases going unchecked by modern
medicine.
December 1992: Depletion of the ozone layer in the northern hemisphere
is now only 15%, which is less than natural variations before the war.
2000: China, now under nationalist government, is trying to retake
Manchuria (which had declared independence after the war) and
Mongolia. Other nations are sufficiently secure internally to launch
invasions to acquire various resources.
2010: Some people exposed to fallout after the war are now dying of
cancer; however, cancer as a cause of death among the survivors is
minimal compared to other causes: disease, starvation, and exposure.
Chinese forces are operating in Southeast Asia, Japan, the
Philippines, and particularly Siberia, where there is an influx of
Chinese settlers.
2040: Some areas that received fallout from strikes on nuclear power
plants and above-ground nuclear waste storage facilities are still
uninhabitable and will remain so for some time to come. Genetic
defects are found in as much as a few percent of the population born
in the northern hemisphere after the war; however, most are not
noticeable or are not handicapping. The more profound physical
deficiencies are due to malnutrition. Some of the surviving nations
have emerged by now as major powers, including Australia, New Zealand,
China, Argentina, and Brazil.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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