Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus > They say it ain't over until the Fat Lady sings. Well, peoplez, perhaps she's just clearing her throat & warming up her vocal chords...................
| Topic: |
Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus |
| User: |
"HOOROO" |
| Date: |
11 Aug 2007 11:20:25 PM |
| Object: |
They say it ain't over until the Fat Lady sings. Well, peoplez, perhaps she's just clearing her throat & warming up her vocal chords................... |
Until the proverbial hits the fan & the Fat Lady struts her stuff !
HOOROO
UNCLE WALLY
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http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,250=
6,L-3435543,00.html
Syrian rockets aimed at Tel Aviv
Long-range rockets already in place on Golan; is Syria preparing for
war?
Ron Ben Yishai
The latest official IDF intelligence branch assessment, adopted by the
Israeli government, is that Syria is not planning to attack Israel. At
least not in the coming months.
The accelerated preparations for war undertaken by the Syrian army
recently, according to the assessment, are not aimed at launching an
offensive, but rather, stem from fears in Damascus that the IDF plans
to attack Syria. As proof of this, IDF intelligence researchers point
to the fact that the Syrian army has not fundamentally changed its
deployment, which is still mostly defensive, vis-=E0-vis Israel.
However, intelligence officials estimate that there is still a risk of
a war breaking out even in the near future as a result of a wrong
estimate (here or there) regarding the other side's intentions - a
"miscalculation" as it is referred to by IDF intelligence officers.
This is why Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made sure to declare Wednesday
that he was not seeking war.
This is the official assessment. Yet this is not the complete picture.
The truth is that there is no certainty within Israel's intelligence
community that Syria is not planning to initiate a military
confrontation with Israel. Quite a few researchers in the IDF
intelligence branch and Mossad suspect that Syria is waiting for a
convenient point in time - which is not necessarily in the distant
future.
We're not talking about the kind of war we're familiar with like the
Six Day War or Yom Kippur War, but rather, a Hizbullah-style war - but
on an immense scale. These arguments and assessments are being taken
very seriously by officials in Jerusalem, and this is the reason why
the cabinet tasked with monitoring home front preparedness convened
again Wednesday for its third or fourth session in order to discuss
the possibility of a massive Syrian missile offensive.
Why do intelligence officials fear a Syrian attack? Below are some
reasons, based on foreign sources and information already reported by
the media:
Syria is currently completing the accelerated deployment of a large
rocket arsenal on the Golan aimed at Israel. We're not talking about
122-millimeter Katyusha rockets with a 20-kilometer (roughly 12 miles)
range and warheads that contain only a few dozens of kilograms of
explosives, but rather, heavy rockets of the type possessed by
Hizbullah (most of them were destroyed in the Air Force attack at the
start of the Second Lebanon War.) These are 222, 302, and even 600
millimeter rockets that can carry hundreds of kilograms of explosives
- up to 500 - and can reach Tel Aviv. Dozens of launchers have already
been deployed on the Golan and they can fire, in one barrage, hundreds
of such rockets. This comes in addition to the various types of Scud
missiles positioned deep within Syrian territory and capable of
hitting southern Israel. However, the Arrow missile is supposed to
intercept the Scuds. Yet at this time, the IDF has no good
technological response, either aerial or on the ground, to the heavy
rockets.
The Syrian army is quickly equipping itself with hundreds of
advanced anti-aircraft and anti-tank rockets made by Russia and funded
by Iran with the aim of thwarting an IDF ground or air assault - an
assault aimed at paralyzing the missile arsenal.
Since the end of last year, the Syrian army has accelerated the
training sessions of all its formations, both regular and reserve, and
already views them as fit for confrontation.
No advance warning
The military implication of the above-mentioned facts, according to
some of those tasked with assessing Syrian intentions, is that Syria
is preparing and able to embark on a Hizbullah-style war of attrition
even without changing its military deployment from a defensive to an
offensive one.
Therefore, if Bashar Assad decides to launch such war, there will be
no clear advance warning that will attest to his country's intention
to embark on a military campaign - and it would be able to launch it
based on the current deployment.
In addition, intelligence officials point to a growing Syrian-Iranian
interest in such war, for the following reasons:
Syria's president is currently confident of his military power and
truly believes that if he only adopts the Hizbullah model, he has the
ability to force Israel to accept his demands regarding the Golan
Heights, and ease some of the international pressure over the murder
of former Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri.
Syria sustained harsh blows when it was forced to withdraw from
Lebanon and isolated in the international arena. In addition, Sunni
opposition elements in Syria are getting stronger. All these factors
threaten Assad's regime and the Alawite sect he bases his power on. A
military achievement, and even a partial one, in a confrontation with
Israel may boost the regime.
Theran is investing efforts to convince Syria that Israel is about to
attack it "in order to erase the shame of the defeat in Lebanon" or as
part of the clash that will develop as a result of an American assault
on Iran's nuclear sites. The Iranians tell the Syrians that President
Bush intends to strike in the summer or fall, and they expect Damascus
to join Iran's counter-attack on western interests in the region.
Therefore, Teheran says, there is a need to prepare and possibly even
launch a pre-emptive strike, before Israel possesses effective systems
for intercepting rockets. Iranian figures who visited Syria convinced
Damascus that the Israeli home front is the Zionist enemy's Achilles
heel and that hitting it gravelly would force Israel to accept the
Arab dictates on the Golan.
In this context, we should be paying attention to what a senior Syrian
official told the New York Sun about a month ago. Should the Golan not
be in Syrian hands by August-September, Syria would be allowed to
embark on a "resistance" campaign, including raids and attacks on
Jewish targets, the official said.
The interviewee, who is a member of the ruling Baath party, provided
the American newspaper with incredibly detailed information regarding
his country's intentions and its military preparations. His words make
it appear that Syria is planning a war of attrition that would start
with border attacks and continue, after the IDF responds, with severe
blows to the Israeli home front. He also noted that Damascus has
established for that end a new underground organization, called the
Committees for the Liberation of the Golan, which will be tasked with
carrying out attacks on IDF border outposts and even infiltrating
Golan communities.
The senior official said that Syria possesses hundreds of missiles
that would hit Tel Aviv and overcome Israel's interception efforts. We
can treat these words with contempt, or as an attempt to scare Israel
and the United States in order to bring about negotiations on the
Golan and ease the pressure over the Hariri affair. Yet the facts on
the ground fully support the Syrian official's thesis, and therefore
it would be worthwhile to address his words seriously.
One way or another, the information and declarations coming from
Damascus create a high level of uncertainty within Israel's
intelligence community regarding the other side's intentions. And in
cases of uncertainty, one must prepare for the worst-case scenario.
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