Turkey: As Tensions Escalate, Istanbul Security is Key
April 10, 2006 18 07 GMT
Summary
On April 10, Turkish police defused a bomb on a bus that transports
judges and prosecutors to a central Istanbul courthouse. The attempt,
likely staged by Kurdish rebels, highlights the escalating tensions
between the Turkish government and Kurdish opposition groups. The
Turkish military likely will use this incident as justification for
further raids against Kurdish strongholds.
Analysis
Turkish police defused a homemade bomb on a bus used to transport
judges and prosecutors to the Beyoglu courthouse in Istanbul's
cosmopolitan European quarter April 10. The driver apparently
discovered the device after he had dropped off his passengers. The bomb
failed, police said, only because the battery in the cell phone that
was to be used as a remote trigger had died.
The attempt, coming less than two weeks after a bomb planted in a
trashcan in Istanbul's Kocamustafapasa district killed one person and
injured 13, has raised the stakes in the government's low-level war
against Turkey's increasingly bold Kurdish militants. Had the attempt
succeeded, and members of the judicial system been killed or maimed,
the reprisals would have been swift and forceful. As it is, the
government has no choice but to raise the security alert in Istanbul --
Turkey's largest city and its economic and cultural center -- as it
steps up its campaign against Kurdish militants in Southeast Anatolia.
Keeping a lid on insurgents in Istanbul is vital if the government is
to prevent investor flight and keep the ball moving toward accession to
the European Union.
Although it is unclear who planted the bomb, Kurdish militants top the
short list of suspects. As the long-fought struggle for Kurdish
independence continues, clashes between Kurdish rebels and the Turkish
military are increasing in Southeast Anatolia, while military efforts
to put down protests and riots in Kurdish towns in the region increase.
This escalation in violence prompted the U.S. Embassy to issue a Warden
Message on March 31, warning U.S. citizens to avoid areas of
southeastern Turkey. As tensions rise, Kurdish rebel groups such as the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK)
have lashed out with retaliatory bombings.
TAK "reprisal units" claimed responsibility for the March 31 attack in
Istanbul, for example, saying it was a response the military's recent
raids against Kurdish strongholds. TAK said attacks against Kurds would
now be "met immediately by even more violent acts" that target both
property and lives. TAK previously had targeted tourist areas near
Turkey's Mediterranean coast in an effort to damage the Turkish
economy, meaning that if the April 10 attempt was orchestrated by TAK,
then its campaign is broadening.
Tensions between Turkey and its Kurdish inhabitants continue to
escalate, and military raids in the Kurdish area of southeastern Turkey
-- which borders Iraq, Iran and Syria -- even have included incursions
into Iraq. Should the battlefield shift from the southeast to the
lifeblood of the Turkish economy, however, the government would have no
choice but to launch a massive military response. Even though the April
10 attack failed, it likely will do little to dissuade the military
from continuing its crackdown in the Kurdish region.
The implications of this latest bomb plot are enormous. Had the bomb
killed judges and prosecutors, the military would have used those
deaths as justification for a major assault against Kurdish groups,
regardless of which one planted the device. As it is, the attempt will
cause the military to increase its efforts in areas such as Southeast
Anatolia -- which in turn will lead to more TAK or PKK reprisals.
Should insurgents continue to target Istanbul, putting foreign
investment and prospects for EU entry on the line, the Turkish
government will have no choice but to bring down the hammer.
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