1) US/NATO exit from Kosovo and Bosnia. EU take over. Spurts of
violence like the one that recently occured in Kosovo, targeting UNMIK
and Serbs & whose underlying cause was the uncertainy of Kosovo's
final status, will continue, especially if they attempt to arrest the
Albanian ring leaders. NATO's inability to successfully control them
will draw criticism from Serbia and will also provide
ultranationalists with more political points. A Serb-Montenegrin
split, and the resulting poltical tensions within Montenengro that it
could produce, will also create further impatience and agitation with
Kosovo's Albanians since "Yugoslavia" or however it has been up to now
redefined does not exist anymore. This will also reinforce Serb
nationalists.
Mounting violence in Iraq will lead to the idea of having NATO help
with stabilization operations in Iraq. The impetus will making NATO
leave the Balkans and refocus on Iraq, leaving Kosovo and Bosnia to be
policed by the EU's rapid reaction force. NATO will have a token force
there at minimal.
EU will probably make consessions to Serbs in hopes that it will
forstall growing influence of nationalists in Serb government. Will
probably allow Serbs to have greater influence in northern Kosovo,
where Serbs predominate, which will aggrevate Albanians further, but
by now what sympathy the outside world has for Albanians in Kosovo
will be greatly diminished.
As for Bosnia, efforts by UN war crimes tribunal to be more aggressive
in arresting war crime leaders may create some destabilization.
Pressure on RS to arrest its own Serb war criminals may cause these
Serb leaders to try to resist moderate RS government, which Karazdic
may try to exploit to destabilize and challenge international
governing body of Bosnia. We may also see similaiar efforts by Muslim
and Croat war criminals to avoid apprehension by challenging their
respective moderate governing entities intending to stir up unrest.
This could be seen as a last hurrah for Milosevoc era Bosnian war
leaders, but Montenegro's break with FY and eventual and gradual
partrition of Kosovo -wether it is exterally or internally generated=
will lead to some renewal of separatism amoungst Bosnian Serbs and
Croats as well as hardline Boniacks. This spiralling situation will be
aggrevated by nationalists, many of them wanted war criminals, from
the shadows. Mafia interests will also aggrevate this situation. EU
will inherit this. This will be important test for EU's rapid reaction
force, as the way it handles events in Bosnia at this stage will have
impact on political situations in Croatia and Serbia. Moderate forces
in both countries will try to standoff from the violence there (as
Albanian has done with Kosovo), and will try to keep nationalists at
bay who are trying to manipulate this situation.
Renewed fighting in Bosnia will not be like first war. It will be more
like Northern Ireland in the 70's and 80's, with riots, bombings and
arsons, snipings, and minor gun battles. There is some possibility
that we could see Iraqi style RPG ambushes against EU forces. Most of
the fighting by radical factions will not be directed at ethnic rival
groups, but against EU forces. There may be some ethnic cleansing
attacks, but these will be small scale and sporadic local affairs, as
this will not be the focus of the Bosnian radicals. Bosnian radical
factions will also attempt to assassinate moderate leaders of their
respective ethnic constituences. There may be some low level
coordination between radical ethnic Bosnian groups against EU forces
as we are seeing in Iraq amoungst Shiites and Sunnis, but they will
largely operate independently since they do not want to potentially
compromise operational security with past and still unreconcilled
rivals.
Bosnian Serb war criminals may also try to instigate unrest in
Montenegro so they can also create another failed state to hide in.
Such unrest will involve "pro unionists" who favored union with
Serbia, Montenegrin separatist forces, and ethnic Albanians who want
to consider separation since they see Montenengro as a possible failed
state. They will be further instiagted by Kosovo Albanian extremists.
Way that Serb gov. reacts will determine future of moderate forces. If
moderates seem impotent to deal with the situation in Montenegro and
international bodies take over, this could seriously compromise Serb
moderates.
If Radicals take over in Serbia, what's left of Serbia could be
fractured.
2) US forces will take over peacekeeping duties in Gaza strip. Despite
threats to kill Arafat, and Israel's eagerness to do so, US will
muscle Israel into accepting Arafat as ruler if this so called state.
Would rather have him since US sees him as more predictable and
pragmatic. Since Arafat will become leader of this "state", which was
the product of a "deal" that compromised the full interests of the
Palestinians and which the Palestinians really had no influence over,
more extreme Palestinian groups will see Arafat as essentially a sell
out stooge and will want to get rid of him, despite his offers of
including them in his government. US will presure Arafat into reneging
on his offers of power sharing with radical Palestinians anyway.
Arafat will end up relying on the US anyway since radical Palestinians
will be aggresively targeting him. He will rely on a US led
international peacekeping force to help supress radical Palestinian
groups and butress in PA. Israel's position will be ambivelant: do we
want to see a butressed PA end up establsihing itself in Gaza which
could later threaten us? Also, continued acts of violence by
Palestinians against Israel, this time in Isreal proper, could make
Israeli hardliners want to continue on with "air assassination"
efforts against Palestinians in Gaza, but I think restraint will be
the order of the day. Could see represion measures against Arabs and
Palestinians within Israel though. There will definitely be
intelligence cooperation between US and Israeli against radical
Palestinians. If US dictates too much the affairs of Palestinian Gaza
government and starts putting approvals or disapprovals over Gazans
choices of government composition, international support for
peacekeeping mission may erode. It will seem as another effort toward
control of Palestinian society on the part of Israel and US.
Assad era military and public officials may end up privately backing
Palestinian radical groups (just like Sunni Iraqi rebels). His son
will have no direct role in this, but he will get blamed for this
anyway, despite his efforts to stop it. This will be one of the
factors leading to the double whammy invasion of Syria and Iran that
will lead to 3rd tribulation which I described in another posting. US
will accuse Syria of 1) backing Palestinian radicals/terrorists
disrupting peace, 2) backing Iraqi insurgents 3) developing WMD 4)
hiding some of Saddams WMD which is why we susposedly couldn't find
any in Iraq. US will accuse Iran of 1) producing nuclear weapons 2)
backing terrorists disrupting Iraqi reconstruction, and 3) working
with Sryria toward backing terrorists against Israel.
Please see other posting about how this leads to third tribulation
("Alus is Sadr & and I vision of third conflagration").
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| User: "Saint Isidore of Laytonville" |
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| Title: Re: Two signs before the third tribulation |
25 Apr 2004 09:26:07 PM |
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Could it possibly be the first and the second?
The Psychedelick Pope
Saint Isidore of Laytonville
^Ö^ Patron Saint of the Internet ^Ö^
°°^Ö^ °°
http://apple2.org.za/gswv/me
AOXOMOXOA and ENESSA QUA ONNICA
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| User: "Saint Isidore of Laytonville" |
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| Title: Re: Two signs before the third tribulation |
25 Apr 2004 09:27:59 PM |
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The death of Mickey Mouse
and the sex change of Madonna.
The Psychedelick Pope
Saint Isidore of Laytonville
^Ö^ Patron Saint of the Internet ^Ö^
°°^Ö^ °°
http://apple2.org.za/gswv/me
AOXOMOXOA and ENESSA QUA ONNICA
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