Ukraine: Former Prime Minister Rises From The Ashes
By Valentinas Mite
Viktor Yanukovych, the man pushed aside by the Orange Revolution, seems
to be winning hearts and minds of Ukrainian voters. Recent polls
suggest that his party is favored by 31 percent of voters compared to
13 percent of those who support the Our Ukraine bloc led by President
Viktor Yushchenko -- the figurehead of Ukraine's reform movement.
Yanukovych's reemergence opens up the possibility that Ukraine's
upcoming parliamentary elections could result in the former premier
leading parliament's strongest faction and place him in a position to
once again become prime minister.
18 January 2006 (RFE/RL) -- In a campaign advertisement that figures
prominently on Ukrainian television yesterday, Viktor Yanukovych doles
out promises and extols the virtues of the party he leads -- the Party
of Regions.
"The Party of Regions is ready to lead the country," Yanukovych
proclaims in the ad. "We will introduce the Russian language as the
second official language in Ukraine. We will lower the income tax. It
is high time to end incompetence. Together we will win for the sake of
Ukraine."
Andriy Bychenko, head of the sociology department at the Oleksandr
Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies in Kyiv, says there
is no doubt that Yanukovych has reemerged as force to be reckoned with.
"The latest polls, that we took at the end of last year, indicate that
the popularity [of Yanukovych] is growing," according to Bychenko.
"Polls made by other [pollsters] indicate the same."
However, Bychenko says Yanukovych's newfound popularity is largely due
to voters' perceptions that the leaders of the Orange Revolution have
failed to live up to the promises that led them to power.
Bychenko says Yuschenko's team has not been successful in fighting
corruption, and has failed in its efforts to push economic reforms and
attract foreign investment.
Yushchenko has dismissed one of the main leaders of the revolution --
Yuliya Tymoshenko -- for incompetence. The current cabinet, headed by
acting Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, has been dismissed by
parliament over a gas deal with Russia. The gas dispute still doesn't
seem to be resolved and nothing seems to be stable in Ukrainian
politics.
On the other hand, Bychenko says the number of Yanukovych supporters is
growing in relative, not absolute terms.
The polls indicate that more and more of Yushchenko's supporters in the
western and central regions of the country are inclined to stay away
from the elections and are not likely to change their minds unless
significant changes occur.
"Former supporters of Yushchenko are engulfed by political apathy
because of the conflicts among what was once a united team," Bychenko
says. "They have decided to refrain from participation in politics, do
not plan to vote -- and this is particularly evident in the central
parts [of Ukraine.]"
Russian-Speaking East
Meanwhile, Yanukovych continues to consolidate his supporters. His
power base is in Ukraine's Russian-speaking eastern and southern
regions, and he tells voters there what they want to hear.
"I have never allowed anti-Russian rhetoric in Ukrainian policy toward
such a strategic partner like Russia," Yanukovych says. "This is the
first point. I never went against the interests of the Ukrainian state
and the Ukrainian people."
Bychenko says Yanukovych's pro-Russian stance is becoming stronger and
more distinctly pronounced -- and the analyst believes this is what the
Kremlin wants to hear. Bychenko notes that Yanukovych received strong
support from Moscow during the 2004 presidential elections -- support
that has not faded.
Ihor Losev, a professor at Kyiv's Mohyla Academy, says that
Yanukovych's Party of Regions could become the most powerful party in
the parliament. Furthermore, Losev says, Yanukovych stands to once
again become prime minister.
"If everything continues the same way as it is now, this danger looks
likely to come true," Losev says.
Losev also notes that Ukraine's constitutional reforms, which went into
effect on 1 January, grant parliament expanded powers -- including the
ability to elect the country's prime minister. Previously only the
president had the power to appoint prime ministers.
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