Ukraine: Kiev's Aggressive Move Eastward
April 06, 2005 22 35 GMT
Summary
The Ukrainian Interior Ministry arrested the chairman of the eastern
city of Donetsk's city council April 6. This marks the start of an
aggressive new phase in Kiev's push to bring the eastern part of the
country under its control -- a push that could get messy.
Analysis
Interior Ministry forces arrested opposition official Boris Kolesnikov,
chairman of the city council of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk,
on April 6. The arrest came after Kolesnikov was questioned on charges
of "separatism" by the country's attorney general. The charges are
connected to events on Dec. 26, 2004 -- the height of Ukraine's recent
political crisis -- when Kolesnikov threatened that the region would
secede from Ukraine if then-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich were not
awarded the presidency as opposed to current President Viktor
Yushchenko.
Kolesnikov's statements led to the threat of secession being considered
first by the Donetsk regional council, then by other regions in the
east, raising the possibility of a split between the largely
pro-Yushchenko west and the pro-Yanukovich east. Donetsk remains the
power base of opposition to Yushchenko -- and therefore to Kiev. It was
only a matter of time before the new masters in Kiev sought to subdue
separatist opponents in the east.
The new government's efforts to root out opposition and take control of
the country began almost immediately after it took power. Prime
Minister Yulia Timoshenko fired many opposition officials from central
government posts, and some privatizations of enterprises owned by
Yanukovich supporters in the east -- now considered to have been
carried out in corrupt, illegal fashions -- are under review.
Kolesnikov's arrest, however, marks the start of a new, more aggressive
phase.
It is unlikely a coincidence that Kiev's first move in this new phase
against those who made separatist calls came just after Yushchenko
concluded his meetings with U.S. President George W. Bush in
Washington. Bush likely gave Yushchenko his support and promised that
he would back Yushchenko in his play against the eastern -- and largely
pro-Russian -- regions of Ukraine.
The arrest is intended to be a message from Kiev to the east in which
opposition officials are presented with a choice: Submit to the central
government and surrender any separatist intentions, or face the
consequences. Sources in the Donetsk opposition said Kiev is aware that
only a very small segment of the opposition harbors separatist intent,
and it also knows the opposition's goal is not to split the country but
to regain full control of it. The central government is raising the
specter of separatism to deny the opposition as a whole any chance of
gaining support in Kiev and Western Ukraine. It is now up to opposition
officials in the east whether to challenge Kiev or acquiesce.
Eastern Ukraine's regions, and Donetsk in particular, are home to much
of Ukraine's industry and most of its oligarchs, and as such these
regions have legitimate bargaining chips and influence. Most of the
oligarchs in the east agreed to back Yushchenko initially, but his
determination to review the country's largest privatizations -- which
they benefited from, through mostly corrupt means -- is not exactly
winning him support.
The oligarchs and officials in these regions, therefore, could decide
to come together and resist Kiev's efforts to impose its will upon them
as the central government becomes more aggressive. Donetsk is a test
case, and as the heart of the country's opposition, it will reveal a
great deal about the future of Yushchenko's eastern campaign. If Kiev
can get away with pursuing officials in Donetsk, then the rest of the
regions probably will follow. If Donetsk puts up a fight, then
Yushchenko -- and
.
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