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UN envoy: ME picture is 'getting darker'

UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen raised an "alarm" about the situation in
the Middle East, warning that the region faces the possibilities of
full-scale war, a fresh effort to contain the current violence, or
energetic diplomacy to try to bring lasting peace.

"The picture which emerges is very dark, and apparently getting
darker," he told reporters on Monday. "So there are reasons for real
concerns in the international community."

Roed-Larsen, the current UN envoy for Lebanon-Syria issues who for
many years was the top UN Mideast envoy, said "the geopolitical
landscape of the Middle East has changed fundamentally over a few
years."

"A few years ago, as it had been over many, many decades, the center
of gravity for all the conflicts were the Israeli-Arab conflicts," he
said. "Now, there seems to be four epicenters of conflict in the
region with their own dynamics, the Iraqi issues, the Iranian issues,
the Syrian-Lebanese issues, and of course the heart of hearts, the
traditional conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli issue."

UNSC concerned arms flowing from Syria to Lebanon
"The new phenomenon seems to be that all these conflicts are now
completely intertwined so that it is very difficult, maybe impossible,
to find a solution to one of them without finding a solution to all of
them," he told reporters after briefing the UN Security Council.

Roed-Larsen called the current situation "alarming" and said there are
three alternatives.

"One is that we continue on the path of violence - the kind of mildest
one being that we continue on the slippery slope of violence that
we've seen not only in Lebanon but also in Gaza, West Bank, Iraq and
elsewhere in the region," he said. "The other one is that it leads to
a full confrontation, and worst case to a regional confrontation with
arms."

The second option is "energetic diplomacy" by the international
community to address the underlying problems, he said.

Roed-Larsen said this is "extremely difficult" today because the four
conflicts in the Middle East are separate, but have become entwined.

"Hopefully there is still a possibility to address this diplomatically
and with peaceful means," he said. "However, that this will happen in
the very foreseeable future is not that likely."

The third option, he said, is "a vigorous containment policy which
stems the slide on the slippery slope" and moves to address "broader
regional tensions."

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