Science > Prophecies-Of-Nostradamus > Uncle Wally 's World War III **NEWZ** Thursday, November 23rd, 2006 AD...The killing of Pierre Gemayel, a Lebanese minister hostile to Syria, may have broader geopolitical consequences
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22 Nov 2006 08:34:08 PM |
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Uncle Wally 's World War III **NEWZ** Thursday, November 23rd, 2006 AD...The killing of Pierre Gemayel, a Lebanese minister hostile to Syria, may have broader geopolitical consequences |
http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3D8311582
Murder in Lebanon
Lighting a fire?
Nov 22nd 2006
From Economist.com
The killing of Pierre Gemayel, a Lebanese minister hostile to Syria,
may have broader geopolitical consequences
Reuters
JUST what will follow the murder of Pierre Gemayel, the 34-year-old,
anti-Syrian, minister of industry from a leading Christian family who
was gunned down by unknown assailants in Beirut on Tuesday November
21st? The situation in Lebanon, which was already tense, looks
increasingly febrile. Angry crowds took to the streets in Beirut
immediately after his death and again on Wednesday. Some of the
demonstrators burned tyres and many accused Syrian agents of the
killing. As three days of official mourning began and preparations were
made for Mr Gemayel's funeral there were fears of more violence. Walid
Jumblatt, an anti-Syrian Druze leader, predicted that more ministers
and parliamentarians could be assassinated as part of a concerted
effort to bring down the Lebanese government. Mr Gemayel is the fifth
anti-Syrian figure to be killed in the past two years.
Within Lebanon attention is now focused on Hizbullah, the opposition
movement supported by Syria which has been set on toppling the fragile,
Western-leaning government of Fouad Siniora. Mr Siniora has been
pushing ahead with plans to approve a special international court to
try suspects for the murder, last year, of a former Lebanese prime
minister, Rafik Hariri. On Tuesday the United Nations Security Council
gave its backing to the court, as long as Lebanon's government agrees.
It is widely assumed that Syria, whose armed forces dominated Lebanon
for three decades until last year, was involved in the killing of Mr
Hariri and is trying to block the trial. Six ministers, mostly
Hizbullah members, resigned last week, leaving Mr Siniora more
vulnerable than ever. The death or resignation of two more ministers
would see the cabinet shrink below its quorum, and thus the government
would collapse.
Beyond Lebanon's borders the situation is no less complicated. The
killing of Mr Gemayel brought swift and noisy condemnation from around
the world. Like the demonstrators in Beirut, many assume that Syria
itself or at least pro-Syrian forces are responsible, although Syria
itself officially denounced the killing. But the killing comes at a
delicate moment in regional and international politics, given efforts
by other neighbours and Western countries who are keen to establish a
closer diplomatic relationship with Damascus.
The past few days have seen a flurry of diplomatic activity between
Syria, Iraq and Iran. Iraq has re-established diplomatic ties with
Syria. Syria=E2=80=99s foreign minister, during a visit to Iraq, has talked
of helping to end the violence there. Iran has invited the leaders of
Iraq and Syria to a regional summit this weekend. In America, where
efforts to find a strategy for eventual withdrawal from Iraq are
intensifying, analysts, diplomats and politicians have increasingly
suggested that a greater role for Syria is becoming inevitable.
As even the likes of Henry Kissinger call the war in Iraq unwinnable by
military means, diplomatic efforts to get co-operation from Syria (and
perhaps from Iran) have been seen as the next option. A commission of
panjandrums under James Baker, a secretary of state for the George Bush
senior, that is supposed to offer new strategies for Iraq early next
month, has also been talking to Syrian officials. Similarily, a senior
British foreign-policy adviser recently visited Damascus. The West's
goal, presumably, is to persuade Syria to close its border to fighters
and weapons heading for Iraq.
The price of Syrian co-operation over Iraq, however, may be considered
too high if Syria is determined to reassert itself in Lebanon.
Hizbullah was already emboldened after withstanding Israel's onslaught
in a month-long war earlier this year.
Yet there are few alternatives available for America in the region.
However distasteful co-operation with Syria may be, especially after
the killing of Mr Gemayel, it will probably be harder yet to strike a
palatable agreement with Iran, given Western-led efforts at the UN to
confront that country over its nuclear ambitions. And Syria is likely,
in any case, to forge ahead with its own closer ties with Iraq and
Iran, while simultaneously working to bring down Lebanon's government.
Just what outsiders could do about that, beyond lending support to Mr
Siniora's embattled government, is far from clear.
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