I would put my money on :

"A Major City near the center of the United State's Atlantic Coast
Line." [ CAT 3 or Much (much) Greater ]

I don't see anything Major happening in the Gulf this year. [At
least not for the first part of the Hurricane season.]

Just A Thought.

8< |


"=C2=BF World War III 2006 [The Last 2300 Days]?T"
<stargatedecember2012@yahoo.ca> wrote in message
news:1149395439.091944.299200@h76g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...

www.reuters.com/

US hurricane outlook draws betting surge
Fri Jun 2, 2006 10:12 AM ET


By Michael Christie
MIAMI (Reuters) - If he believed the smart money, online gambling
commentator Christopher Costigan would move out of his oceanfront

pad

on Miami Beach right now.

According to the odds given by the multibillion-dollar Internet

betting

industry, it's almost a dead certainty that Florida will be struck

by a

big hurricane during the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, which
officially opened on Thursday.

But Costigan says he is staying put. "I will be betting on the

reverse

... I'm looking right at the ocean," he said.

The intensity of the last two Atlantic hurricane seasons has

triggered

a mini-frenzy this year of storm-related bets online, where

gamblers

can make so-called "proposition wagers" on anything ranging from

"will

life be found on Mars?" to "who will win the next presidential
election?"

"Betting is funny," said WagerWeb.com chief executive Dave

Johnson. "If

there's enough things in the news, people want to bet on them.

If you want to win big money, Costigan said, you should bet on the
United States escaping a major hurricane strike over the next six
months after two ferocious seasons that saw eight hurricanes lash
Florida and Hurricane Katrina devastate New Orleans and kill 1,300
people.

"In terms of will a Category 3 (hurricane) not hit the U.S.,

actually

there's some great value in those odds," Costigan said, referring

to

the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

"Six hundred was the last I saw, 6 to 1 odds or $6 paid for every
dollar bet. Those are actually great odds considering the fact

that in

the last 16 years, there's only been six years in which a Category

3 or

higher has hit the United States," said Costigan, of the
Gambling911.com Web site, which reports on the online betting

business.

Some U.S. media commentators have slammed the industry for
insensitivity -- about 1,300 Americans died and tens of thousands

of

lost their homes when Katrina swamped New Orleans and shattered

the

Mississippi coastline last August.

Thousands more in Florida, Texas, Alabama, Mexico and Central

America

suffered as 2006 spawned a record 28 tropical storms, of which 15
became hurricanes.

The online gambling industry says betting on the weather is as
legitimate as betting on a baseball game. None, however, are

offering

odds on death tolls or home destruction.

"I'm not looking to profit off destruction, believe me," said

Mickey

Richardson, chief executive of Costa Rica-based BetCris.com. "I

guess

there's a thin line between what's appropriate and what's not and

I'm

trying to stay in that gray area without offending people."

The Web sites base their odds on predictions by expert

forecasters,

statistics of past seasons and to a lesser extent on how their
customers bet.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S.
government's climate agency, forecasts up to 16 tropical storms,

of

which up to 10 will become hurricanes.

NOAA expects four to six of the hurricanes to be Category 3 storms

or

above, so-called "major" hurricanes. The long-term average is for

just

under 10 storms per season, of which six become hurricanes.

Costa Rica-based WagerWeb.com puts the chances of more than 21

tropical

storms this year at plus 130, meaning if you bet $100 you could

win

$130 if you're right. The odds of there being less than 21 storms

are

minus 160, which means you have to bet $160 to win $100.

According to BetCris.com, the greatest likelihood is for three

major

hurricanes to strike the United States. The odds on that are at

plus

165. By contrast, the odds on just one major hurricane striking

the

United States are plus 400 -- a long shot.

Whether the popularity of hurricane bets continues depends on,

well,

the weather. "If this year comes out and it's a very inactive

season

and people lose interest in it ... I don't think there's going to

be as

much talk about it next year," Johnson said.