U.S.-Iran tensions could trigger accidental war, military and analysts say
By Jim Krane
ASSOCIATED PRESS
1:30 p.m. January 31, 2007
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Citing Iranian involvement with Iraqi militias and
Tehran's nuclear ambitions, the Bush administration has shifted to offense
in its confrontation with Iran - building up the U.S. military in the
Persian Gulf and promising more aggressive moves against Iranian
operatives in Iraq and Lebanon.
The behind-the-scenes struggle between the two nations could explode into
open warfare over a single misstep, analysts and U.S. military officials
warn.
Iraq has become a proxy battleground between Washington and Tehran, which
is challenging - at least rhetorically - America's dominance of the Gulf.
That has worried even Iraq's U.S.-backed Shiite prime minister, who - in a
reflection of Iraq's complexity - also has close ties to Iran.
Iran and the United States are already sparring on the ground.
On Jan. 20, militants kidnapped and killed four American soldiers in a
raid in Karbala, and a fifth was killed in the firefight. A U.S. defense
official said one possibility under study is that Iranian agents either
executed or masterminded the attack, a suspicion based on the
sophisticated and unusual methods used in the attack, including weapons
and uniforms that may have been American.
He spoke on condition of anonymity because the probe is ongoing.
There has been speculation that the Karbala assault may have been in
retaliation for the arrest of five Iranians by U.S. troops in northern
Iraq.
Those five Iranians, who were arrested in the northern city of Irbil,
included two members of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard force that provides
weapons, training and other support to Shiite militants in the Middle
East, U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad said last week. Iraqi and Iranian
officials maintain the five were diplomats.
Since the Karbala raid, U.S. saber-rattling has intensified. President
Bush said this week that U.S. forces in Iraq would take action against
Iranian operatives in the country, while insisting he had no intention of
attacking Iran.
"If Iran escalates its military action in Iraq to the detriment of our
troops and/or innocent Iraqi people, we will respond firmly," Bush told
National Public Radio.
Although little evidence has been made public, U.S. officials have long
insisted that Iran was supplying weapons and training to Shiite militias
in Iraq, including some that have killed American troops.
The No. 2 U.S. general in Iraq told USA Today in an interview published
Tuesday that Iran was supplying Iraqi Shiite militias with a variety of
powerful weapons, including Katyusha rockets and armor-piercing
rocket-propelled grenades.
"We have weapons that we know through serial numbers ... trace back to
Iran," Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno said.
The Air Force is considering more forceful patrols on the Iraqi side of
the border with Iran to counter the smuggling of weapons and bomb
supplies, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing senior Pentagon
officials.
The U.S. is also building up its military presence in the Gulf in what it
says is a show of strength directed at Iran. A second aircraft carrier is
heading for the region, and Patriot missile batteries are being deployed.
Since Bush announced his new Iraq strategy in early January, Iranian
officials have raised the alarm repeatedly that the U.S. intends to
attack. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran is "ready for anything" in
its confrontation with the United States.
A newspaper close to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last
week threatened retaliation for any U.S. military action - including
stopping oil traffic through the Gulf's strategic Hormuz Straits and
attacks on U.S. interests. The top editor of the Kayhan daily warned that
Iran will turn the Middle East into "hell" for the United States and
Israel if America attacks.
Iran expert Ray Takeyh said the risks are all the greater because Tehran
has an "unhealthy" disregard for American power, which "enhances the
prospect of a miscalculation."
Prof. Gary Sick, a leading authority on Iran, believes the U.S. is seeking
to divert world attention from the crisis in Iraq and organize a coalition
of Israel and conservative Sunni Arab states to confront Iran.
"I see this as a very dangerous long-term policy because it promotes the
idea that Sunnis and Shiites should be distrustful of each other, and I
think that could come back and bite us later on," he said.
Iran and the U.S. also are in dispute over Tehran's nuclear program. The
United States accuses Iran of secretly developing atomic weapons - an
allegation Tehran denies. Iran's defiant refusal to suspend uranium
enrichment prompted the U.N. Security Council to impose limited economic
sanctions.
The U.S. has also beefed up support for Lebanon's government in its power
struggle with Hezbollah, the Shiite militia that Washington accuses of
acting in Iran's interests.
But Lee Feinstein of the Council on Foreign Relations said the U.S. was
finding it hard "to calibrate its message" to distinguish "between a stern
message and a warning of attack."
The war of words has raised fears among both Democrats and Republicans in
Congress that the United States and Iran are drifting toward armed
conflict at a time when America is struggling against determined foes in
Iraq and Afghanistan.
It has also unnerved the Iraqi government, many of whose members have
close ties to Iran.
"We have told the Iranians and the Americans, 'We know that you have a
problem with each other but we're asking you, please, solve your problems
outside of Iraq,'" Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, told CNN on
Wednesday. "We do not want the American forces to take Iraq as a base to
attack Iran ... we will not accept Iran using Iraq to attack American
forces. But does this exist? It exists and I assure you it exists."
As the rhetoric grows more strident, a U.S. military official in the Gulf
likened the U.S.-Iran standoff to the buildup in hostility in Europe
before World War I, when the assassination of the heir to the Austrian
throne triggered a tragic war that engulfed a continent.
"A mistake could be made and you could end up in something that neither
side ever really wanted, and suddenly it's August 1914 all over again,"
the U.S. officer said on condition of anonymity, because of the
sensitivity of the issue. "I really believe neither side wants a fight."
Iranian coast guard vessels recently veered into territorial waters on the
Arab side of the Gulf, an event that could have been viewed as either a
mistake or a provocation, the officer said. Both sides are on tenterhooks.
"A boat crosses a line ... but what does it mean? You've got to be very
careful about overreacting," the officer said.
Even if Iran pulled back from Iraq's conflict, it might not end the
country's violence, said Kenneth M. Pollack, research director at the
Saban Center for Middle East Policy.
"The truth is that Iraq is a mess. It is in a state of low-level civil
war. And all of these groups are largely self-motivated," he said on the
Council on Foreign Relations Web site. "But its much easier to blame it on
the Iranians."
In Tehran, political analyst Hermidas Bavand said U.S. force increases
were leading many Iranians to believe Washington is looking to pick a
fight.
"It's an extremely dangerous situation," Bavand said. "I don't think
Tehran wants war under any circumstances. But there might be an accidental
event that could escalate into a large confrontation."
AP writer Jim Krane reported from Doha, Qatar.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20070131-1330-iran-warclouds.html
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| User: "Perseid" |
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| Title: Re: U.S.-Iran Tensions Could Trigger Accidental War... |
03 Feb 2007 05:25:51 AM |
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After Much Chewing of Cud and Cogitation, "Docrodile"
<swampthing@hellsbayou.net> Spat the Words
U.S.-Iran tensions could trigger accidental war, military and analysts say
I'm not sure just how accidental this will be. I consider it
a foregone conclusion at this point. The Iranians think they
have the US at a disadvantage since it is tied up in Iraq,
and the truth is that 2 US Carrier groups is more than enough
to demolish the entire Iranian conventional capability.
One side or the other is bound to stage the provocation to
armed conflict. It may have happened already with that Karbala
raid.
By Jim Krane
ASSOCIATED PRESS
1:30 p.m. January 31, 2007
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Citing Iranian involvement with Iraqi militias and
Tehran's nuclear ambitions, the Bush administration has shifted to offense
in its confrontation with Iran - building up the U.S. military in the
Persian Gulf and promising more aggressive moves against Iranian
operatives in Iraq and Lebanon.
The behind-the-scenes struggle between the two nations could explode into
open warfare over a single misstep, analysts and U.S. military officials
warn.
AP writer Jim Krane reported from Doha, Qatar.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20070131-1330-iran-warclouds.html
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