US plans huge show of force in Pacific
Straits Times | June 30 2004
HONG KONG - The United States is planning a massive show of force in
the Pacific Ocean near China to register a point with Beijing.
In an exercise codenamed Operation Summer Pulse 04, it is expected to
arrange for an unprecedented seven aircraft carrier strike groups
(CSGs) to rendezvous in waters a safe distance away from the Chinese
coastline - but still within striking distance - after mid-July.
This will be the first time in US naval history that it sends seven of
its 12 CSGs to just one region.
According to a Department of Defence statement, Summer Pulse is to
test out a new Fleet Response Plan (FRP) aimed at enhancing the
American Navy's combat power and readiness in a time of crisis.
The FRP calls for the despatching of six 'forward deployed' or 'ready
to surge' CSGs to a trouble spot within 30 days, and an additional two
within 90 days.
Although the statement does not say where the seven CSGs will
exercise, the Status of the Navy website said the USS Carl Vinson,
Abraham Lincoln, John C Stennis and Kitty Hawk were in the Pacific
Ocean as of yesterday.
The USS Enterprise and Harry Truman are in the Atlantic Ocean while
USS George Washington is in the Persian Gulf.
According to a posting on Sina.com, an influential website in China,
the signs point to a gathering of all seven CSGs in the Pacific.
Sources in Beijing say China's reading is that Summer Pulse is being
mounted with it as the target audience, a suspicion reinforced by
reports that Taiwanese forces are slated to join in the drill.
Clearly, given Beijing's repeated warning that it will use force, as a
last resort and whatever the cost, to stop Taiwanese independence, the
US feels it needs to send Beijing a message.
From past deployment patterns, the US usually despatches one CSG to a
trouble spot as a reminder of its presence.
It did so several times in the past when tension was high in the
Taiwan Strait.
It sends two to indicate serious concern, as was the case when China
test-fired missiles over the strait in 1996.
In a combat situation, it deploys three to four, which was what it did
in the Gulf War in the early 1990s and the recent Iraqi war.
But never before has it sent in peace time seven CSGs to the same
theatre.
The implications for China are grave.
According to Kanwa Defence News, which specialises in Chinese military
matters, Beijing can cope with just one CSG currently.
'But in five to 10 years, it can certainly take on seven,' said Mr
Chang Hong-yi, head of Kanwa, in an interview with The Straits Times.
'China's military potential is enormous and in terms of military
technology, the gap with the US is closing fast,' he added.
However, a Chinese military source who declined to be identified is
more sanguine.
'Even now, China can easily take on two CSGs,' he said but conceded
that there was no way it could face seven all at the same time.
This means that if China has to wage war over Taiwan, it has to be
able to land and seize control of the island within the first 30 days.
Otherwise, under the FRP, six CSGs may well arrive to join in the
battle.
'All this leaves China with no choice but to start and end the war
with lightning speed,' said the source.
Politically, Summer Pulse is likely to be seen by many Chinese as
naked intimidation.
'This is gunboat diplomacy in the 21st century,' the source remarked,
adding that it would remind the Chinese people of their century-long
deep humiliation by Western powers - and put Sino-US relations at
peril.
"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged
to stick with possibilities:truth isin't"
Mark Twain
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