A careful reader of the limited news coming out of Iraq will
discover the US military situation is perilous and a few more bad
moves could send the US Army and Marines retreating back to Kuwait in
the same manner they fled southward 54 years ago in Korea. That was
when a million Chinese foot soldiers suddenly appeared and attacked as
overextended US forces approached the Chinese border. American
firepower, airpower, and technology was unable to compensate for the
confusion and lack of supplies for American ground troops.

The main problem in Iraq today is the massive logistics effort
required to sustain US Forces at a over a hundred dispersed camps.
Over 95% of supplies arrive by ship, and the closest major seaport is
in Kuwait. This means everything must be hauled hundreds of miles
over war torn roads among hostile natives. This is far more difficult
than Vietnam, which had a long coastline where supplies could be
dropped off. A recent article by Tom Ricks of the Washington Post
noted that most convoys are attacked, and that soldiers must stop to
check each bridge for explosives because there is not enough manpower
to guard them. Other reporters tell of recently destroyed bridges,
forcing convoys to travel on secondary roads which doubles their
travel time. In addition, many civilian truck drivers have refused to
drive and many foreign logistics contractors have left Iraq.

Many reports tell of ammunition rationing. The US military was
not expecting a prolonged conflict, and drawing and transporting
dangerous ammo from limited worldwide stockpiles is a challenge.
Senior Army officials told the House Armed Services Committee last
month that nearly all the wartime stockpiles in Southwest Asia and on
the island of Diego Garcia have been issued, as well as equipment
stashed in Europe-a total of 10,000 tanks, personnel carriers, trucks,
and other vehicles. Only the Army's equipment for one brigade in
Korea and the Marines' brigade stock in Guam remain untouched. In
addition, the desert sand and heavy use of helicopters and equipment
is wearing them out many times faster than usual. This demands many
more spare parts and shortages have developed. Ammunition and most
military spare parts cannot be purchased on the commercial market.
Assuming the military supply and contracting bureaucracy can quickly
identify needs and place orders, it takes months to boost production.
Meanwhile, Generals must juggle budget allocations with semi-legal
account shifts since the Bush administration has announced that it
will not ask Congress for supplemental funding until January, after
the presidential election.

Back in Iraq, US commanders need more troops to guard supply
lines and provide security, but more troops require more supplies.
Moreover, the Army is stretched to the limit and has no forces ready
to deploy. There are several National Guard divisions available since
most Guard combat units have not been mobilized since 9-11. However,
that would cause an election year embarrassment for the Bush
administration, and there is no money allocated to pay them anyway.
While President Bush often proclaims the nation is at war, he has
failed to request a tax increase to pay for it and has become hesitant
to mobilize more reservists to provide the manpower Army Generals say
they need. Meanwhile, combat units have been diverted for an election
year offensive into the rugged Afghanistan mountains in hope of
capturing Osama bin Laden, while the Spanish and other allies pull
their troops from Iraq. Finally, hundreds of heavy M-1 tanks were
shipped back to the USA last year as the Army expected only light
peacekeeping duty. Only 70 are left in Iraq, while 28 are inbound
from Germany in an emergency airlift personally ordered by Secretary
Rumsfeld. The 1st Marine Division brought none of its 58 tanks and
was forced to borrow some from the Army to support recent fighting.

Americans forget the Bush administration had promised democracy
in Iraq. Eventually, they realized that since the Shiite represent
60% of Iraq, the country would come under the control of
fundamentalist religious leaders who are likely to demand the US
military leave. The US is building four large, modern "enduring"
bases in Iraq, and apparently wants to shift forces now based in
Germany to permanent bases in Iraq, which is to become America's
military bastion in the Middle East. Iraqis are not fooled by
statements that "sovereignty" will be granted on June 30th. All this
means is that some new English speaking Iraqi puppets will be
appointed to represent US interests. While the US military attempts
to win their hearts and minds with billions of dollars in aid, Iraqis
show little gratitude since the US caused most of the damage with
bombings and a ten year trade embargo.

Sensational reporting by Arab television networks has aroused
anti-American hatred throughout the Arab world. The religious
co-leaders of unstable Saudi Arabia issued a fatwa (a law) urging
Muslims to use "all means" to stop what it called "the fierce
onslaught" on Muslims by "occupation forces" in Iraq. It "urges every
fair person among Muslims and others in the world to denounce this
fierce onslaught and strive by all means to stop it and punish those
responsible for it", said the fatwa, carried by the Saudi state SPA
news agency. This was not reported by American media, and the effect
is difficult to measure, but worrisome enough that the US government
immediately ordered all non-essential US citizens to leave Saudi
Arabia. President Bush further infuriated Arabs by announcing that he
would not seek an agreement to end the Israeli occupation of Arab
land, but will support whatever Israel wants to do.

As a result, Iraq has become a magnet for young, adventurous
jihadist from Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran whose leaders have begun
to openly voice disapproval of the situation. Iran has a population
of 70 million, compared to 25 million in Iraq. If one million armed
Iranians slip across the border and attack American infidels, the US
may have to retreat. Anyone who thinks this is implausible should
read about the US Army's embarrassing retreat from North Korea in
1950. Army Generals were extremely optimistic, dismissive of their
enemy, and thought airpower could always protect them. This
historical document: Staff Operations: The X Corps in Korea, December
1950 includes these comments:

"It seemed as if the war was winding to a successful close. So sure
were Almond and his staff of the enemy's weakness that they thinned
forces across the entire front. Almond told officers of one regiment:
"We're still attacking and we're going all the way to the Yalu. Don't
let a bunch of Chinese laundrymen stop you." That regiment was
overrun a few days later, by Chinese laundrymen.

"General Willoughby-asserted that a Chinese intervention was highly
unlikely but that if it occurred the Chinese would suffer massive
casualties to UN air power. This optimism colored the plans and ideas
of all subordinate commands."

"At the start of the massive Chinese intervention, the X Corps staff
at first tried to ignore it or downplay its effect on the corps'
offensive plans. In response to the new guidance and in an attempt to
react to the rapidly changing situation for which they had no
contingency plans, the X Corps staff prepared a succession of orders,
each outlining vastly different types of operations." X Corps and the
1st Marine Division managed a semi-organized bloody retreat from all
of North Korea which was embarrassing and costly.

American forces in Iraq cannot be defeated in standard military
engagements. However, insurgents know the weak spot; the long main
supply routes. If camps run short of ammo and spare parts, they must
retreat toward Kuwait and hope that the Army's cash strapped logistics
bureaucracy can meet the surging demand to save them from catastrophe.
The Army must take five steps to prevent an embarrassing retreat: 1)
Secure the main supply routes and establish emergency supply caches
inside Iraq; 2) Develop plans to quickly abandon vulnerable camps in a
crisis; 3) Avoid alienating the Arab world with offensive operations
until the first two steps are accomplished; 4) Stop calling Iraqi
insurgents thugs, terrorists, and criminals. That encourages poor
treatment of all Iraqis by American soldiers and makes negotiations to
end violence impossible; 5) Americans must not destroy Iraqi cities in
order to save them, lest they find themselves overrun by irate Muslim
laundrymen.


Carlton Meyer

A careful reader of the limited news coming out of Iraq will
discover the US military situation is perilous and a few more bad
moves could send the US Army and Marines retreating back to Kuwait in
the same manner they fled southward 54 years ago in Korea. That was
when a million Chinese foot soldiers suddenly appeared and attacked as
overextended US forces approached the Chinese border. American
firepower, airpower, and technology was unable to compensate for the
confusion and lack of supplies for American ground troops.

If one million armed
Iranians slip across the border and attack American infidels, the US
may have to retreat. Anyone who thinks this is implausible should
read about the US Army's embarrassing retreat from North Korea in
1950.