USA OUT OF BUSINESS

Don Smith

It has been quite some time since I felt the need to formally write to
you regarding the state of the US economy. The first time was back at
the beginning of the year 2000. I will let the events that have
occurred since then speak for themselves.

Once again I charge myself with the task of issuing a warning to good
people under the influence of stock-pushing analysts and
office-seeking politicians. Many people think we are in a bull market
in stocks again while others believe we are in a bear market rally
that is going to end shortly and wreak havoc unseen since the early
part of the 20th century. What I would like to throw into the mix is
the idea that the entire "Game" is about over.

Those of you that are familiar with my writing style know I like to
write for the common person. I am not the most intellectual person
around. If the message in this writing hits home, please check in with
those that can articulate these issues with cool expertise.

Let's take a look at some rounded numbers:

The US National Debt = $7 Trillion
The US Income (not including funds that go specifically to Social
Security and Medicare) = $1 Trillion
The US Deficit = $0.5 Trillion
Interest Rate on Debt >= 5% (based on $128 Million spent during the
first trimester of fiscal 2004;
www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdint.htm)


Assume for a moment that the statistics above are reasonably accurate
and hold constant for a few years. Also assume the service on debt
goes up a mere ¼ of 1 percent per year. As the graph below shows, by
the year 2011, 100% of the revenue the government receives will go
straight from the taxpayer's pocketbook to the holders of US debt
instruments. There will be no money for any governmental function in
the United States of America whatsoever.
SNIP
If this sounds like an emergency posting, then you have received my
message. May God bless and keep you all in this time to come.



Don Smith

USA OUT OF BUSINESS

Don Smith

It has been quite some time since I felt the need to formally write to
you regarding the state of the US economy. The first time was back at
the beginning of the year 2000. I will let the events that have
occurred since then speak for themselves.

Once again I charge myself with the task of issuing a warning to good
people under the influence of stock-pushing analysts and
office-seeking politicians. Many people think we are in a bull market
in stocks again while others believe we are in a bear market rally
that is going to end shortly and wreak havoc unseen since the early
part of the 20th century. What I would like to throw into the mix is
the idea that the entire "Game" is about over.

Those of you that are familiar with my writing style know I like to
write for the common person. I am not the most intellectual person
around. If the message in this writing hits home, please check in with
those that can articulate these issues with cool expertise.

Let's take a look at some rounded numbers:

The US National Debt = $7 Trillion
The US Income (not including funds that go specifically to Social
Security and Medicare) = $1 Trillion
The US Deficit = $0.5 Trillion
Interest Rate on Debt >= 5% (based on $128 Million spent during the
first trimester of fiscal 2004;
www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdint.htm)


Assume for a moment that the statistics above are reasonably accurate
and hold constant for a few years. Also assume the service on debt
goes up a mere ¼ of 1 percent per year. As the graph below shows, by
the year 2011, 100% of the revenue the government receives will go
straight from the taxpayer's pocketbook to the holders of US debt
instruments. There will be no money for any governmental function in
the United States of America whatsoever.




No, there is nothing wrong with this graph. The debt owed by United
States of America is about to spiral out of control, and there's
really nothing anyone can do about it. Alan Greenspan has just warned
lawmakers that the Social Security system, which currently enjoys a
budget surplus that it donates to the country's general fund, will
become over subscribed and begin operating in the red by the year
2008. So the influence of the Social Security surplus won't even help
for much longer.

Now if I am smart enough to draw this graph, not holding a PhD in
economics, what are the odds that the Japanese are smart enough to
figure this out? How about the economists over in the European Union?
The quick answer is, "Of course they know." However, through some
manner by which the human psychic operates, our leaders have decided
that you and I aren't supposed to know this. We're BANKRUPT for
heaven's sake!

The people running Enron were saints compared to their counterparts in
Washington, DC and New York!

Sometimes I wonder, do these guys really think we're that dumb? Do
they really think they can inflate their way out of this? Do they
really think you and I will pay $5 per gallon for gas and $5 for a
gallon of milk and accept their artificially low inflation numbers,
telling us that gold and silver are relics not worthy as mechanisms to
preserve wealth? I mean…even they must have a limit as to what they
believe they can push. As unimaginable as it is however, current
indications are that they will push it right to the very limit and
then go beyond the limit!

One morning we will all wake up, and the whistle will have blown. The
game will be over. A cascading of electronic bits and bytes will have
melted into a digital heap. News anchors will be dumbfounded. Guests
appearing on stock-pushing financial programs will be dumbstruck. The
gorgeous financial babes will forget to darn makeup and no one will
notice. The entire world will be thrust into a state of morning. The
banks will not open. There will be civil unrest.

To be terse, the USA will be "Out of business."

The question I have for you is, "How are you preparing for this
eventuality?"

You say it cannot happen, our leaders are too smart to let it happen!
I say our leaders are self-serving, and cannot stop it, even though
they knew how! The only way out of this mess would have been to
tighten our belts several years ago, letting the recession work its
painful course. However, our leaders spent their time and effort
committing governmental accounting fraud. They cooked the books! Have
I painted a bleak enough picture?

Do you own any physical gold and silver? Is it stored in a place where
you don't have to ask permission to retrieve it?

There won't be many casual survivors over these next few years. What
there will be are massive winners and massive losers.

Regardless of their efforts, will those holding the house of cards
together be able to stretch the deception long enough to put George
Bush back into office? Asking this question should provoke two
responses. If you have already seen this coming and made the
preparations you feel are necessary, then the answer to this question
is muted. However, if you haven't moved to protect yourself for what
is coming, the answer to this question will have considerable impact
on you. If it were me, I wouldn't wait to find out.

Forget about the short-term price swings of gold and silver as your
purchase price will mean absolutely nothing in the long run. What will
count is what you have at the moment, not how you came by it.

If this sounds like an emergency posting, then you have received my
message. May God bless and keep you all in this time to come.



Don Smith

Revelation 18:19
And they cast dust on their heads, and cried, weeping and wailing,
saying, Alas, alas that great city, wherein were made rich all that
had ships in the sea by reason of her costliness! for in one hour is
she made desolate.

March 2, 2004