USAF 2025 - Weather As
A Force Multiplier: Owning
The Weather
From Ross Dowe <ippoz@eisa.net.au>
3-294
A Research Paper Presented To Air Force 2025
By
Col Tamzy J. House
Lt Col James B. Near, Jr.
LTC William B. Shields (USA)
Maj Ronald J. Celentano
Maj David M. Husband
Maj Ann E. Mercer
Maj James E. Pugh
August 1996
Disclaimer
2025 is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of
staff of the Air Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and
technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air
and space force in the future. Presented on 17 June 1996, this report
was produced in the Department of Defense school environment of
academic freedom and in the interest of advancing concepts related to
national defense. The views expressed in this report are those of the
authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the
United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States
government.
This report contains fictional representations of future
situations/scenarios. Any similarities to real people or events, other
than those specifically cited, are unintentional and are for purposes
of illustration only.
This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review
authorities, is unclassified, and is cleared for public release.
Contents
Chapter
Disclaimer
Illustrations
Tables
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
1. Introduction2. 3. Required Capability4.
* Why Would We Want to Mess with the Weather?
* What Do We Mean by "Weather-modification"?5. System Description6.
* The Global Weather Network
* Applying Weather-modification to Military Operations7.Concept of
Operations8.
* Precipitation
* Fog
* Storms
* Exploitation of "NearSpace" for Space Control
* Opportunities Afforded by Space Weather-modification
* Communications Dominance via Ionospheric Modification
* Artificial Weather
* Concept of Operations Summary9. Investigation Recommendations10.
* How Do We Get There From Here?
* Conclusions
Appendix
A Why Is the Ionosphere Important?
B Research to Better Understand and Predict Ionospheric Effects
C Acronyms and Definitions
Bibliography
Notes
Illustrations
Figure
3-1. Global Weather Network
3-2. The Military System for Weather-Modification Operations
4-1. Crossed-Beam Approach for Generating an Artificial Ionospheric
Mirror
4-2. Artificial Ionospheric Mirrors Point-to-Point Communications
4-3. Artificial Ionospheric Mirror Over-the-Horizon Surveillance
Concept
4-4. Scenarios for Telecommunications Degradation
5-1. A Core Competency Road Map to Weather Modification in 2025
5-2. A Systems Development Road Map to Weather Modification in 2025
Tables
Table 1 - Operational Capabilities Matrix
Acknowledgments
We express our appreciation to Mr Mike McKim of Air War College who
provided a wealth of technical expertise and innovative ideas that
significantly contributed to our paper. We are also especially
grateful for the devoted support of our families during this research
project. Their understanding and patience during the demanding
research period were crucial to the project's success.
Executive Summary
In 2025, US aerospace forces can "own the weather" by capitalizing on
emerging technologies and focusing development of those technologies
to war-fighting applications. Such a capability offers the war fighter
tools to shape the battlespace in ways never before possible. It
provides opportunities to impact operations across the full spectrum
of conflict and is pertinent to all possible futures. The purpose of
this paper is to outline a strategy for the use of a future
weather-modification system to achieve military objectives rather than
to provide a detailed technical road map.
A high-risk, high-reward endeavor, weather-modification offers a
dilemma not unlike the splitting of the atom. While some segments of
society will always be reluctant to examine controversial issues such
as weather-modification, the tremendous military capabilities that
could result from this field are ignored at our own peril. From
enhancing friendly operations or disrupting those of the enemy via
small-scale tailoring of natural weather patterns to complete
dominance of global communications and counterspace control,
weather-modification offers the war fighter a wide-range of possible
options to defeat or coerce an adversary. Some of the potential
capabilities a weather-modification system could provide to a
war-fighting commander in chief (CINC) are listed in table 1.
Technology advancements in five major areas are necessary for an
integrated weather-modification capability: (1) advanced nonlinear
modeling techniques, (2) computational capability, (3) information
gathering and transmission, (4) a global sensor array, and (5) weather
intervention techniques. Some intervention tools exist today and
others may be developed and refined in the future.
Table 1 - Operational Capabilities Matrix
DEGRADE ENEMY FORCES ENHANCE FRIENDLY FORCES Precipitation
EnhancementPrecipitation Avoidance - Flood Lines of Communication-
Maintain/Improve LOC - Reduce PGM/Recce Effectiveness- Maintain
Visibility - Decrease Comfort Level/Morale- Maintain Comfort
Level/Morale Storm EnhancementStorm Modification - Deny Operations-
Choose Battlespace Environment Precipitation DenialSpace Weather -
Deny Fresh Water- Improve Communication Reliability -- Induce Drought-
Intercept Enemy Transmissions Space Weather- Revitalize Space Assets -
Disrupt Communications/RadarFog and Cloud Generation - Disable/Destroy
Space Assets- Increase Concealment Fog and Cloud RemovalFog and Cloud
Removal - Deny Concealment- Maintain Airfield Operations - Increase
Vulnerability to PGM/Recce- Enhance PGM Effectiveness Detect Hostile
Weather ActivitiesDefend against Enemy Capabilities
Current technologies that will mature over the next 30 years will
offer anyone who has the necessary resources the ability to modify
weather patterns and their corresponding effects, at least on the
local scale. Current demographic, economic, and environmental trends
will create global stresses that provide the impetus necessary for
many countries or groups to turn this weather-modification ability
into a capability.
In the United States, weather-modification will likely become a part
of national security policy with both domestic and international
applications. Our government will pursue such a policy, depending on
its interests, at various levels. These levels could include
unilateral actions, participation in a security framework such as
NATO, membership in an international organization such as the UN, or
participation in a coalition. Assuming that in 2025 our national
security strategy includes weather-modification, its use in our
national military strategy will naturally follow. Besides the
significant benefits an operational capability would provide, another
motivation to pursue weather-modification is to deter and counter
potential adversaries.
In this paper we show that appropriate application of
weather-modification can provide battlespace dominance to a degree
never before imagined. In the future, such operations will enhance air
and space superiority and provide new options for battlespace shaping
and battlespace awareness.<v3c15-7.htm#11 "The technology is there,
waiting for us to pull it all together;"<v3c15-7.htm#22 in 2025 we can
"Own the Weather."
Chapter 1 Introduction
Scenario: Imagine that in 2025 the US is fighting a rich, but now
consolidated, politically powerful drug cartel in South America. The
cartel has purchased hundreds of Russian-and Chinese-built fighters
that have successfully thwarted our attempts to attack their
production facilities. With their local numerical superiority and
interior lines, the cartel is launching more than 10 aircraft for
every one of ours. In addition, the cartel is using the French system
probatoire d' observation de la terre (SPOT) positioning and tracking
imagery systems, which in 2025 are capable of transmitting
near-real-time, multispectral imagery with 1 meter resolution. The US
wishes to engage the enemy on an uneven playing field in order to
exploit the full potential of our aircraft and munitions.
Meteorological analysis reveals that equatorial South America
typically has afternoon thunderstorms on a daily basis throughout the
year. Our intelligence has confirmed that cartel pilots are reluctant
to fly in or near thunderstorms. Therefore, our weather force support
element (WFSE), which is a part of the commander in chief's (CINC) air
operations center (AOC), is tasked to forecast storm paths and trigger
or intensify thunderstorm cells over critical target areas that the
enemy must defend with their aircraft. Since our aircraft in 2025 have
all-weather capability, the thunderstorm threat is minimal to our
forces, and we can effectively and decisively control the sky over the
target.
The WFSE has the necessary sensor and communication capabilities to
observe, detect, and act on weather-modification requirements to
support US military objectives. These capabilities are part of an
advanced battle area system that supports the war-fighting CINC. In
our scenario, the CINC tasks the WFSE to conduct storm intensification
and concealment operations. The WFSE models the atmospheric conditions
to forecast, with 90 percent confidence, the likelihood of successful
modification using airborne cloud generation and seeding.
In 2025, uninhabited aerospace vehicles (UAV) are routinely used for
weather-modification operations. By cross-referencing desired attack
times with wind and thunderstorm forecasts and the SPOT satellite's
projected orbit, the WFSE generates mission profiles for each UAV. The
WFSE guides each UAV using near-real-time information from a networked
sensor array.
Prior to the attack, which is coordinated with forecasted weather
conditions, the UAVs begin cloud generation and seeding operations.
UAVs disperse a cirrus shield to deny enemy visual and infrared (IR)
surveillance. Simultaneously, microwave heaters create localized
scintillation to disrupt active sensing via synthetic aperture radar
(SAR) systems such as the commercially available Canadian search and
rescue satellite-aided tracking (SARSAT) that will be widely available
in 2025. Other cloud seeding operations cause a developing
thunderstorm to intensify over the target, severely limiting the
enemy's capability to defend. The WFSE monitors the entire operation
in real-time and notes the successful completion of another very
important but routine weather-modification mission.
This scenario may seem far-fetched, but by 2025 it is within the realm
of possibility. The next chapter explores the reasons for
weather-modification, defines the scope, and examines trends that will
make it possible in the next 30 years.
Contact: http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025/contact.htm
Last updated: 11 December 1996
.
|
|
| User: "Saint Isidore of Laytonville" |
|
| Title: Re: USAF to own weather by 2025 |
05 Apr 2004 07:47:28 PM |
|
|
I gave them most of that technical info and ythose theories --- when I was in
the USAF back in 1963.
It's amazing what all they have done with it so far.
The Psychedelick Pope
Saint Isidore of Laytonville
^Ö^ Patron Saint of the Internet ^Ö^
°°^Ö^ °°
http://apple2.org.za/gswv/me
AOXOMOXOA and ENESSA QUA ONNICA
.
|
|
|
|
|
Related Articles |
|
|
