After Much Chewing of Cud and Cogitation, John Lemke
<jflemke@locallink.net>
Spat the Words

Everything's changing so rapidly and on so many fronts.

Glad I grew up around and lived for so many years near lakes.

Anybody familiar with the stories about polar ice caps on other
planets disappearing?

Not too many other planets get polar ice-caps to start with..
and here I was worrying about Andromeda colliding with the
Milky Way in 5 billion years.. ha ! Looks like that doom and
gloom bunker mentality is setting in.

HOOROO

UNCLE WALLY

=====000====
An example of what will happen to our beaches pretty soon. Too late to
do anything about it now.

http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/rising-seas.html

HOOROO

UNCLE WALLY

On May 3, 8:27 am, "leigh8...@optusnet.com.au"



<leigh8...@optusnet.com.au> wrote:

On May 2, 1:29 pm, =E2=98=BBHOOROO =E2=97=99 <sgdecember2...@yahoo.ca> =

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/science/nature/6610125.stm

Monday, 30 April 2007, 22:37 GMT 23:37 UK
Arctic melt faster than forecast
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

Arctic ice is melting faster than computer models of climate
calculate, according to a group of US researchers.

Since 1979, the Arctic has been losing summer ice at about 9% per
decade, but models on average produce a melting rate less than half
that figure.

The scientists suggest forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) may be too cautious.

The latest observations indicate that Arctic summers could be ice-free
by the middle of the century.

"Somewhere in the second half of the century, it would happen," said
Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the
University of Colorado.

"The fact that all models show ice loss over the observed period and
all project large ice losses into the future is a very strong
message"
Marika Holland

"Some computer models show periods of great sensitivity where the
Arctic ice system collapses suddenly, and that trend may occur a bit
earlier; that's the best guess, but exactly when it's hard to say," he
told the BBC News website.

Dr Scambos co-authored the latest study, published in the journal
Geophysical Research Letters, with other scientists from NSIDC and
from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), also in
Boulder, Colorado.

They also calculate that about half, if not more, of the warming
observed since 1979 originates in humanity's emissions of greenhouse
gases.

Model perfection

There are measurements dating back about a century on the extent of
Arctic ice, but satellite observations from 1979 onwards are generally
thought to provide the most accurate dataset.

The new research involved analysing two periods,1953-2006and1979-2006.

Records show a shrinkage over the longer period of 7.8% per decade.
When only the more recent period is analysed, the rate rises to 9.1%
per decade.

For comparison, the researchers looked at a collection of 18 computer
models used by the IPCC and other institutions for making projections
of future climates.

Models are always verified against real-world data from the recent
past to see how well their output mimics reality.

The collection scrutinised here calculated an average decline of only
2.5% per decade for1953-2006, and 4.3% per decade since 1979 - both
well short of the real-world observations.

"There are lessons here for the climate modelling community,"
acknowledged NCAR's Marika Holland.

"The rate of ice loss, and the location of ice loss - these are things
that the models need to improve, and there are physical processes such
as the release of methane from melting permafrost that the models
don't include."

Constant picture

This is the third time in the last few months that studies have
suggested the IPCC's latest major global climate analysis, the Fourth
Assessment Report, is too conservative.

In December, a German team published research suggesting that sea
levels could rise by 50-140cm over the coming century. The IPCC, in
February, gave a range of 28-43cm.

Then, also in February, came an analysis showing that temperature and
sea level rises had been rising at or above the top end of IPCC
projections since the panel's previous major assessment in 2001.

This is the opposite view from that put forward by many "climate
sceptics", who view the whole field of computer modelling as deeply
flawed, and the IPCC as an alarmist organisation.

Because of the way it works, the IPCC is bound to be conservative, as
it assesses in considerable depth research already in the public
domain. This process takes time, and means the panel's conclusions
will always lag behind the latest publications.

Nevertheless, Marika Holland believes there is agreement on the major
questions regarding Arctic ice; it is receding, and greenhouse gases
of human origin are largely responsible.

"The fact that all models show ice loss over the observed period and
all project large ice losses into the future is a very strong
message," she said.

Richard.Black-INTER...@bbc.co.uk

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=

But the major effect is going to be the Gulf Stream which is likely
not to go under the ice but dissipate on the ocean causing a dilution
of salinity and bring ice right down to Northern Spain etc
see also Gulf Stream;http://www.gulfstreamshutdown.com/-Hide quoted tex=

- Show quoted text -

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=

http://intraspec.ca/enviro.php

We're rapidly running out of drinkable water supply down here in
Melbourne (as you're probably well aware, Brisbane is in a far more
dire predicament)....

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,21662200-911,00.html

We should go to stage 5 **IMMEDIATELY** & the Desalination Plant
should be given **URGENT** priority.

The pollies must stop pissfarting around -- & get on with the urgent
tasks at hand.

HOOROO

UNCLE WALLY

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D000=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

An example of what will happen to our beaches pretty soon. Too late to
do anything about it now.

http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/rising-seas.html

HOOROO

UNCLE WALLY