Venezuela: A Military Shift Toward Chavez?
June 25, 2004
Summary
The commander of Venezuela's army warned June 24 that foreign powers
are planning to invade the country to seize its oil. Gen. Isaias
Baduel did not mention the United States or Colombia by name. However,
Baduel's public demonstration of a close political alliance with
President Hugo Chavez suggests that part of the military is closing
ranks around Chavez.
Analysis
Venezuelan army commander Gen. Isaias Baduel warned June 24 in a
speech to his troops that "international factors of power" are
conspiring against Venezuela and "the national Bolivarian state, which
stands against the thesis of globalization." Baduel also warned that
Venezuela must be on guard against a foreign military intervention "in
the style of coalitions that have intervened in different countries of
the world." President Hugo Chavez was present when Baduel made the
speech.
Baduel said the alleged international plot to invade Venezuela "would
seek guaranteed access to cheap energy" in order to "consolidate
globalization and its dominion over the planet for at least this
century."
Baduel is one of the most politically powerful generals currently on
active duty in the National Armed Forces (FAN). His remarks show a
close political alliance with Chavez, and have set off alarms among
some observers in Caracas who thought Baduel was not committed
ideologically to the government's Bolivarian revolution.
Baduel never mentioned the United States by name. However, his speech
came one day after U.S. government officials and congressional leaders
including Sen. Norman Coleman, R-Minn., and Christopher Dodd, D-Conn.,
warned Chavez and the National Assembly against doing anything that
could be interpreted as blocking or rigging a presidential recall
referendum on Aug. 15. All recent opinion surveys indicate Chavez
likely would lose the referendum.
Separately, Stratfor sources inside the Venezuelan army reported June
25 that Baduel is restructuring battalion and artillery group commands
in the army to make sure that all units in Caracas and near other
major cities like Maracaibo and Valencia are firmly in the command of
pro-Chavez officers. One source, who attended a recent meeting of
officers chaired by Baduel, said the army commander openly discussed
transferring officers whose loyalty was suspect to border outposts
hundreds of miles from Caracas.
The army sources also said the FAN has purchased substantial
quantities of rocket-propelled grenades and other light weapons for
infantry units in recent months. The sources said the acquisitions
were made to arm the reserve militia units that Chavez has created,
and which are supposed to number close to 100,000 members -- more than
the entire FAN.
Sources in the Bush administration confirmed to Stratfor on June 23
that there is growing concern about the situation inside the FAN. The
Chavez government has severed all institutional ties between the FAN
and the Pentagon since the beginning of this year, and important
official channels of communication have shut down. However, Pentagon
sources told Stratfor recently that some U.S. military personnel
tracking developments in Venezuela believe that Chavez is very close
to achieving his goal of turning the FAN from what historically has
been a pro-U.S. institution into a military organization aligned
against the United States and indoctrinated with Bolivarian ideology
-- which is a mix of nationalism, socialism and anti-Americanism.
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