Voting could move Ukraine closer to Moscow
By MARA D. BELLABY
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
KIEV, Ukraine -- Voters look set to deal President Viktor Yushchenko a
rebuff in a parliamentary election next Sunday that could tilt their
divided country back toward Russia just 16 months after a revolution
that appeared to move Ukraine closer to the West.
It's a bitter twist for Yushchenko, whose Orange Revolution ushered in
the very reforms that are making this contest the most democratic in
the former Soviet republic's history.
Now he must contend with polls predicting the winner will be his
arch-foe, ex-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the man whose
fraud-marred run for the presidency in 2004 triggered the revolution
that along with similar upheavals in the former Soviet states of
Georgia and Kyrgyzstan has encouraged democratic restiveness in
neighboring Belarus.
Yushchenko's presidency is not at stake in this election, but
widespread disappointment with the peaceful revolution's unfulfilled
promises of prosperity and an end to corruption has left Yushchenko's
camp struggling even to win second place.
The resurgence of Yanukovych, whose political career seemed buried by
the Orange Revolution, could reshape the pro-Western politics of this
nation of 47 million people stretching between the European Union and
Russia.
Most analysts predict Yushchenko will be pragmatic and reach out to
Yanukovych to form a coalition, since neither of their parties will get
enough votes to form a parliamentary majority.
Proponents of a coalition say it could help bridge Ukraine's deep
regional divisions, absorb the 44 percent of voters who didn't support
the revolution, and improve Kiev's rocky ties with Moscow.
Critics say it could slow Ukraine's West-ward turn and return power to
some officials that the Orange Revolution leaders had vowed to jail.
"If this coalition is formed, what was the point of the revolution?"
said former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose acrimonious split
with the president last fall shattered the Orange Revolution team.
The charismatic Tymoshenko, whose fiery speeches helped spur the
protesters in November 2004, wants the prime minister's job back and
has focused her campaign on disillusioned revolution supporters who,
analysts say, could give her party a strong showing.
Yushchenko's bloc has countered by spending much of the campaign
blaming Tymoshenko for the plunge in annual economic growth from 12
percent to 2 percent, the rise in prices of staples such as meat and
sugar, and last year's privatization debacle that scared off foreign
investors.
Both insist in public that they want to reunite, but when asked
recently to name one good thing Tymoshenko did in office, Yushchenko's
face hardened. Seconds ticked by. "I'm composing my emotions so I can
restrain them," he said finally, and didn't name one thing.
Publication of polls in the week before an election is barred, and
earlier surveys varied dramatically. But most put Yanukovych's bloc in
the lead with around 30 percent, followed by Yushchenko's and
Tymoshenko's parties running neck-and-neck at 15 percent to 22 percent
each.
That could mean Yushchenko having to serve out the 3 1/2 years left in
his term with a government working against him, Prime Minister Yuriy
Yekhanurov warned voters.
The disarray dismays voters such as Olha Prikhodko, 60, whose home in
western Ukraine is adorned with photos of Yushchenko and his five
children, and of Tymoshenko, who braids her blonde hair in peasant
style.
"All I want is for Yulia (Tymoshenko) and Viktor Andriyovych
(Yushchenko) to make peace and reunite," Prikhodko said.
With that peace looking increasingly unlikely, analysts are debating
the implications of Yanukovych's possible return.
He draws his support almost exclusively from Ukraine's industrial,
Russian-speaking east, and wants Russian, which was dumped as the state
language after the country became independent in 1991, to be restored
to official status alongside Ukrainian.
He says he supports Ukraine joining the rich and prosperous European
Union, but views membership in a trade zone with Russia, Belarus and
Kazakhstan as an immediate priority.
Yanukovych's ally, businessman Alex Kiselev, expects Yanukovych to
pursue a policy more balanced between Russia and the West, remarking:
"You never bet your whole hand on one horse."
But Yushchenko would retain significant powers to shape policy. The
president gets to appoint the foreign and defense ministers, and the
current foreign minister, Borys Tarasiuk, a Ukrainian nationalist, is
widely expected to stay in the job.
Yushchenko has told journalists he is sure foreign policy won't change,
saying that "European-Atlantic integration is in harmony with our
national interests."
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