I found this most interesting archived article on Iran's 'military
threat'
that predates to 1996. Note what it says, carefully. That was a decade
ago. Their defenses have exponentially increased since. Sanctions
didn't
do any good then, and they won't now. A military strike by the US or
Israel will likely prove catastrophic in the weeks and months
following.

Note, too, that the Clinton administration shied away from a military
confrontation...and I believe, rightly so. But, Clinton was in a good
solid political position domestically, internationally at that moment
in
time. These Bush apes certainly aren't. Desperation hangs heavy in the
air. Are you getting my drift??

Thanks for fetching some articles for me to chew on...LOL! I don't
think
WW3 will occur this year, Wally, but that a widening Gulf regional
conflict now looks likely. If I had to bet on it, I'd say 10-2 right
now,
to collect the winnings. LOL! When the USS John Stennis carrier group,
from
near my place here (Bremerton, WA), arrives in the region in about 3
weeks, we can then expect fireworks of some kind to begin shortly
thereafter. Iran will
likely wait for the US lead to follow up on. I doubt they'll want to
play
their hand, preemptively. All my research shows they're more than
prepared.

Also, there are strong indications I've found in my research that this
latest round of Iranian naval, air, and ground activity is an
accelerated
Phase 3 of 'The Great Prophet II" military exercise program, started
last
March, and then followed up in Nov. 2006 -- in which Iran tested THREE
new
missiles successfully in November. They have a big array and large
number of ground-based
missiles, and some air-to-ground...and that is their primary
retaliatory
punch. No doubt the US will attempt to neutralize that punch quickly
and
over a very large spanse of territory, but it is clear that a number of
'em
will reach their targets -- at least 6 Gulf states are on the target
list,
from sources I've found. The Patriot system will knock many down, but
not all. And it just takes a relative few to hit key military
installations, naval ships, air bases, oil ports, and tankers. =C2=A0Some
analysts believe, as the article points out, that Iran may want to
strike at civilian and military targets, largely avoiding hitting oil
targets.
US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan will be in even
more danger and, with more arriving, this is shaping up to be a
worst-case
scenario.

=C2=A0Almost certainly, terrorism will sharply rise. The Strait of Hormuz
will likely become a firestorm. I would expect we'll hear of increased
Iranian ground activity there at any time. Their
missile punch is surprisingly of considerable magnitude and variety,
including multiple
warheads...and I don't think anyone's certain they'll be obliged to
keep
the warheads all conventional IF Bush pushes harder than expected. Let
us
hope the insane chimp doesn't go totally ape-***** and they don't
either...the gas pump price will
shoot through the roof no matter what he does, sinking the US and some
allies into, at least, a short-term sharp recession. If Israel carries
out the dirty work, the scenario will shift considerably for any
retaliation from Iran. We're talking hypotheticals on a US strike, not
an Israeli one. If Israel hits Iran, one could expect less action
against the US or Arab states. Some believe Iran wants to keep this
conflict aimed at whoever attacks it, and leave the oil targets mostly
alone. Still, the oil prices will skyrocket...and we're talking about
months for this to work through, not something that'll be over in a few
weeks...right into the 2008 Presidential elections.
Dr. Bipolar

Iran builds up military strength at mouth of Gulf

August 6, 1996
Web posted at: 11:30 p.m. EDT (0330 GMT)

From Military Affairs Correspondent Jamie McIntyreWASHINGTON (CNN) -- De=

Iran "a growing threat" to stability in the Persian Gulf region.

Pentagon sources say Iran is building up its military strength around
the
mouth of the Gulf, thereby increasing its capability of shutting off
one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

"The threat from Iran has increased and is still growing," Perry told a
convention of lawyers in Orlando, Florida. "To counter these threats,
we
maintain strong military forces ... in the Gulf region."

Last week, Perry hinted that Iran may have been behind the June 25
attack
on U.S. military housing near Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, that killed 19
American airmen.

However, on Tuesday, Iran said in a letter that the U.S. claim that
Tehran
may have been behind the truck bombing is "disinformation," and threats
of
retaliation against those involved are "state terrorism."

U.S. threats have "potentially dangerous repercussions to international
peace," Iran's foreign minister wrote U.N. Secretary-General Boutros
Boutros-Ghali, calling on the United Nations to help prevent any
escalation of conflict.

On Monday, President Clinton authorized sanctions against Iran and
Libya
that would punish international firms doing business with the two
nations,
which Washington has accused of sponsoring international terrorism.

Worrisome location

Pentagon planners see Iran as a more dangerous adversary than either
Iraq
or Libya, because of its geographic position.

If the United States were to consider launching a Tomahawk
cruise-missile
strike against Iran in retaliation for international terrorism,
military
sources say the first sign would be the quiet exodus of U.S. Navy ships
from the Gulf.

The reason: Unless the United States neutralized Iran in a large-scale
attack, Iran's military could effectively block off the mouth of the
Gulf,
trapping U.S. warships inside.

In the past two years, Iran has obtained two Russian kilo-class diesel
submarines, and a third is to be delivered in a month or two. Iran also
has taken delivery of 10 Chinese fast-attack boats equipped with C802
anti-ship missiles with a 60-mile range.

And sources say Iran continues to build up its forces on three key
islands -- Abu Musa, Tunb and Sirri -- near the Strait of Hormuz,
gateway
to the Persian Gulf. Iran is adding Hawk anti-aircraft and Silkworm
anti-ship missiles to the strategic islands.

"I can tell you that their activities and buildup in the Gulf seem to
go
far beyond their defensive need, particularly on those three little
islands," Defense Department spokesman Ken Bacon said.

However, Bacon played down the notion of Iran seeking to disrupt oil
supplies. He said in Washington on Tuesday that Tehran used the Gulf
for
most of its oil exports, and "they would be the first victim" of any
cutoff.

But sources say Iran's formidable shore defenses could pose a threat to
U.S. warships if Iran were provoked. There's no question the U.S.
military
forces in the Gulf region are far superior to Iran's, but Iran is not
defenseless.

As one senior officer explained, "Unlike Iraq and Libya, the United
States
can't just whack Iran and walk away."
=20
www.cnn.com/WORLD/9608/06/iran.threat/