Surprise surprise..
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2026&ncid=716&e=26&u=/latime
sts/20050401/ts_latimes/intelligenceanalystswhiffedonacurveball
WASHINGTON - Prewar claims by the United States that Iraq was producing
biological weapons were based almost entirely on accounts from a defector
who was described as "crazy" by his intelligence handlers and a "congenital
liar" by his friends.
The defector, code-named "Curveball," spoke with alarming specificity about
Iraq's alleged biological weapons programs and fleet of mobile labs. But
postwar investigations showed that he wasn't even in the country at times
when he claimed to have taken part in illicit weapons work.
Despite persistent doubts about his credibility, Curveball's claims were
included in the Bush administration's case for war without so much as a
caveat. And when CIA analysts argued after the war that the agency needed to
admit it had been duped, they were forced out of their jobs.
The disclosures about Curveball and the extensive role he played in
corrupting U.S. intelligence estimates on Iraq were included in a
devastating report released Thursday by a commission established by
President Bush to evaluate U.S. intelligence on weapons of mass destruction.
The 601-page document is a sweeping assessment of U.S. intelligence failures
that identifies breakdowns in dozens of cases involving multiple countries
and terrorist organizations.
But in many ways, Curveball's story is the centerpiece of the report, a
cautionary tale told in excruciating detail to highlight failures that
plagued U.S. spy agencies at almost every step in the intelligence process -
from collection to analysis to presentation to policymakers.
U.S. intelligence agencies' reliance on Curveball and their failure to
scrutinize his claims are described in the report as the "primary reason"
that the CIA and other spy agencies "fundamentally misjudged the status of
Iraq's [biological weapons] programs." No other episode is explored in as
much detail, or recounted with as much evident dismay.
"Worse than having no human sources," the commission said, "is being seduced
by a human source who is telling lies."
Curveball even influenced assessments in areas where he claimed no inside
knowledge, the commission said. One analyst told the panel that Curveball's
descriptions of biological weapons activity in Iraq "pushed" chemical
weapons experts to be more aggressive in their judgments. "Much of the CW
confidence was built on the BW confidence," the analyst said.
Curveball's identity has never been publicly revealed. His code name and the
role he played in leading U.S. spy agencies to assess that Iraq possessed
biological weapons was first described in an article in the Los Angeles
Times in March 2004. The commission's report describes Curveball as an Iraqi
chemical engineer who defected at a time when U.S. and other spy agencies
were desperate for new sources on Iraq's weapons programs, after U.N.
inspectors had left the country in 1998. The CIA never had access to
Curveball. Instead, he was controlled by Germany's intelligence service,
which passed along the information it collected to the United States through
the Defense Intelligence Agency, a Pentagon spy agency that handled
information from Iraqi defectors.
Between January 2000 and September 2001, the report said, the DIA
disseminated "almost 100 reports" from Curveball, who was seen as a valuable
new source. Among his most alarming claims was that Iraq had assembled a
fleet of mobile labs to manufacture biological weapons and evade detection.
The reports triggered a flurry of escalating U.S. intelligence assessments
on Iraq, even though the DIA "did not even attempt to determine Curveball's
veracity," according to the report. Curveball's claims gained new currency
after the Sept. 11 attacks, as the Bush administration adopted a policy of
preempting international threats and turned its focus to Iraq.
Curveball's claims were crucial to the case for war. An October 2002
National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iraq "has" biological weapons
was "based almost exclusively on information obtained" from Curveball,
according to the report.
Four months later, when then-Secretary of State Colin L. Powell made a
presentation to the United Nations, he showed illustrations of Iraq's
alleged bioweapons labs and described an accident in which 12 Iraqis had
died operating one of the vehicles. Curveball was the main source for both
assertions. Concerns about Curveball's credibility were never conveyed to
Powell or other administration officials, the commission found.
But there were problems with Curveball's claims at an early stage. Some CIA
officials noted that Curveball's memory showed significant "improvement" as
he pursued a European immigration deal and deteriorated when it was granted.
In May 2000, a Defense Department official assigned to the CIA was allowed
to meet with Curveball, apparently to examine the source physically to see
whether he bore signs of having survived a biological weapons accident or
had been vaccinated for exposure to such agents.
The evaluation was "inconclusive," according to the commission. But the
official expressed concern that Curveball had a "hangover" during their
meeting and "might be an alcoholic." Further, the official was surprised
that Curveball spoke excellent English because the Germans had said he
didn't speak the language.
By early 2001, the CIA was getting messages from German intelligence that
Curveball was "out of control" and could not be located. Some of Curveball's
information was contradicted by other intelligence. His description of a
depot for the weapons labs didn't match surveillance images, which showed a
wall where Curveball said vehicles were entering and exiting.
As war approached, new problems surfaced. Before Powell's presentation, the
CIA pressed for permission to speak directly with Curveball. The head of one
of the agency's divisions arranged a lunch with a German intelligence
official.
The German official discouraged the idea, saying, "You don't want to see him
because he's crazy," according to the commission report. The German went on
to suggest that Curveball had suffered a nervous breakdown, that speaking
with him would be "a waste of time," and that he might be a "fabricator."
Agency officials dispute what happened next, in the commission's telling.
Several officers in the CIA's clandestine service described meetings and
conversations in which they warned senior agency officials of Curveball's
credibility problems.
One officer said she was told by then-Deputy Director of Operations James L.
Pavitt that judgments about Curveball "should be made by analysts." Another
recalled warning John McLaughlin, then deputy director of the CIA, that
Curveball might be a fabricator, only to have McLaughlin say, "Oh, my! I
hope that's not true."
Finally, about midnight before the day of Powell's U.N. presentation, an
agency officer described a telephone conversation with then-CIA Director
George J. Tenet in which the officer warned against relying on Curveball.
"Tenet replied with words to the effect of 'yeah, yeah,' and that he was
'exhausted,' " the commission's report said.
Pavitt told the commission he was aware of "handling problems" with
Curveball but did not know Curveball was the dominant source for biological
weapons assessments. McLaughlin and Tenet told the panel that they did not
recall receiving those warnings about Curveball.
Tenet, McLaughlin and Pavitt all left the CIA last year.
The commission report revealed details about problems with other prominent
prewar claims. The CIA asserted that Iraq was importing aluminum tubes to be
used as centrifuges in a nuclear weapons program, although authorities have
since concluded they were for conventional rockets.
An allegation that Iraq was seeking to acquire uranium from Niger was based
on "transparently forged documents" purporting to show a contract between
the countries, the commission concluded. There were "flaws in the
letterhead, forged signatures, misspelled words, incorrect titles for
individuals and government entities," the report said.
The contract document also referred to an alleged meeting "that took place
on 'Wednesday, July 7, 2000,' even though July 7, 2000, was a Friday," the
report said.
All of these assertions unraveled, but none in more embarrassing fashion
than the case built on Curveball's accounts.
After the invasion, intelligence officials tracked down Iraqis who Curveball
had claimed were his co-workers in the biological weapons program. All
denied there was a mobile biological weapons program, and none "even knew
who Curveball was," the commission found.
Curveball said the program began in 1995, but family members and associates
said that he had been fired from his position that year, and that he was out
of the country for much of the following four-year period.
Although Curveball had said the deadly accident he witnessed had taken place
in 1998, he "was not even in Iraq at that time, according to information
supplied by family members and later confirmed by travel records," the
commission found.
When CIA officers finally got direct access to Curveball in May 2004, he was
"unwilling or unable" to explain discrepancies in his account, and any
remaining questions about his lack of reliability "were removed," the
commission said.
The panel challenged one persistent suspicion about Curveball: that his
deception was the result of coaching by the Iraqi National Congress, an
organization led by Ahmad Chalabi that had spent years urging the overthrow
of Saddam Hussein's regime. The panel found that at least two national
congress defectors were fabricators, but said it was "unable to uncover any
evidence that the INC or any other organization was directing Curveball."
Long after the invasion, the CIA resisted acknowledging that Curveball was a
phony and that its prewar claims about Iraq's weapons programs were wrong,
the commission said. One analyst who argued in late 2003 that Curveball had
lied was "read the riot act" by his director, accused of "making waves" and
ultimately forced to leave the office.
Another analyst who urged the agency to issue a reassessment of Iraq's
chemical weapons program was "told to leave."
The agency rescinded all of its intelligence reports that were based on
Curveball in May 2004.
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: WMD intelligence source was aloholic and congenital liar. |
11 Apr 2005 06:59:45 AM |
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TW wrote:
Surprise surprise..
The defector, code-named "Curveball," spoke with alarming specificity about
Iraq's alleged biological weapons programs and fleet of mobile labs. But
postwar investigations showed that he wasn't even in the country at times
when he claimed to have taken part in illicit weapons work.
Post war.
Tony
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| User: "tw" |
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| Title: Re: WMD intelligence source was aloholic and congenital liar. |
11 Apr 2005 07:26:57 AM |
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<itwill@happen.com> wrote in message
news:1113220676.2534c7e36e680aad5df6bd42a7458ee7@teranews...
TW wrote:
Surprise surprise..
The defector, code-named "Curveball," spoke with alarming specificity
about
Iraq's alleged biological weapons programs and fleet of mobile labs. But
postwar investigations showed that he wasn't even in the country at times
when he claimed to have taken part in illicit weapons work.
Post war.
LOL! You fucking simpleton - guess you missed these bits...
"But there were problems with Curveball's claims at an early stage. Some CIA
officials noted that Curveball's memory showed significant "improvement" as
he pursued a European immigration deal and deteriorated when it was granted.
In May 2000, a Defense Department official assigned to the CIA was allowed
to meet with Curveball, apparently to examine the source physically to see
whether he bore signs of having survived a biological weapons accident or
had been vaccinated for exposure to such agents.
The evaluation was "inconclusive," according to the commission. But the
official expressed concern that Curveball had a "hangover" during their
meeting and "might be an alcoholic." Further, the official was surprised
that Curveball spoke excellent English because the Germans had said he
didn't speak the language."
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: WMD intelligence source was aloholic and congenital liar. |
11 Apr 2005 09:09:16 AM |
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TW wrote:
<itwill@happen.com> wrote in message
news:1113220676.2534c7e36e680aad5df6bd42a7458ee7@teranews...
TW wrote:
Surprise surprise..
The defector, code-named "Curveball," spoke with alarming specificity
about
Iraq's alleged biological weapons programs and fleet of mobile labs. But
postwar investigations showed that he wasn't even in the country at times
when he claimed to have taken part in illicit weapons work.
Post war.
LOL! You fucking simpleton - guess you missed these bits...
"But there were problems with Curveball's claims at an early stage. Some CIA
officials noted that Curveball's memory showed significant "improvement" as
he pursued a European immigration deal and deteriorated when it was granted.
No surprise here, informants often clam up after they get what they
wanted.
In May 2000, a Defense Department official assigned to the CIA was allowed
to meet with Curveball, apparently to examine the source physically to see
whether he bore signs of having survived a biological weapons accident or
had been vaccinated for exposure to such agents.
The evaluation was "inconclusive," according to the commission.
Inconclusive, so he may have been exposed to or vaccinated against
Biological weapons.
Thanks for that tidbit Tommy Boy.
Bottom line, the President had plenty of intelligence sources from
different countries telling him that Iraq had stockpiles of WMD and an
active program.
If you deny this, then you expose yourself as either a liar, or
clueless.
Post 9-11 he could not afford to wait and see, he had to act.
Post war is another story all together.
Tony
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| User: "tw" |
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| Title: Re: WMD intelligence source was aloholic and congenital liar. |
11 Apr 2005 09:14:22 AM |
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<itwill@happen.com> wrote in message
news:1113228445.0e5088e07bd3cf0c3b6ac03a696d3be0@teranews...
TW wrote:
<itwill@happen.com> wrote in message
news:1113220676.2534c7e36e680aad5df6bd42a7458ee7@teranews...
TW wrote:
Surprise surprise..
The defector, code-named "Curveball," spoke with alarming specificity
about
Iraq's alleged biological weapons programs and fleet of mobile labs.
But
postwar investigations showed that he wasn't even in the country at
times
when he claimed to have taken part in illicit weapons work.
Post war.
LOL! You fucking simpleton - guess you missed these bits...
"But there were problems with Curveball's claims at an early stage. Some
CIA
officials noted that Curveball's memory showed significant "improvement"
as
he pursued a European immigration deal and deteriorated when it was
granted.
No surprise here, informants often clam up after they get what they
wanted.
No, fuckstick, the point was he was hardly universally trusted PRE invasion.
Sheesh.
In May 2000, a Defense Department official assigned to the CIA was
allowed
to meet with Curveball, apparently to examine the source physically to
see
whether he bore signs of having survived a biological weapons accident or
had been vaccinated for exposure to such agents.
The evaluation was "inconclusive," according to the commission.
Inconclusive, so he may have been exposed to or vaccinated against
Biological weapons.
...or may have just been suffering a hangover, as
Thanks for that tidbit Tommy Boy.
Why snip it then?
But the official expressed concern that Curveball had a "hangover" during
their
meeting and "might be an alcoholic." Further, the official was surprised
that Curveball spoke excellent English because the Germans had said he
didn't speak the language."
Bottom line, the President had plenty of intelligence sources from
different countries telling him that Iraq had stockpiles of WMD and an
active program.
The bottom line is ..plenty MORE people inside the agencies were telling him
the sources were useless.
If you deny this, then you expose yourself as either a liar, or
clueless.
See above.
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| User: "Woodswun" |
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| Title: Re: WMD intelligence source was aloholic and congenital liar. |
11 Apr 2005 05:13:55 PM |
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wrote:
TW wrote:
< > wrote in message
news:1113220676.2534c7e36e680aad5df6bd42a7458ee7@teranews...
TW wrote:
Surprise surprise..
The defector, code-named "Curveball," spoke with alarming specificity
about
Iraq's alleged biological weapons programs and fleet of mobile labs. But
postwar investigations showed that he wasn't even in the country at times
when he claimed to have taken part in illicit weapons work.
Post war.
LOL! You fucking simpleton - guess you missed these bits...
"But there were problems with Curveball's claims at an early stage. Some CIA
officials noted that Curveball's memory showed significant "improvement" as
he pursued a European immigration deal and deteriorated when it was granted.
No surprise here, informants often clam up after they get what they
wanted.
And they often embelish/lie to get what they want, too. No sense in
even using them, is there?
Woods
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| User: "Perseid" |
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| Title: Re: WMD intelligence source was aloholic and congenital liar. |
11 Apr 2005 10:21:33 PM |
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Woodswun <woodswun@tepidmail.com> Spat the Words
itwill@happen.com wrote:
TW wrote:
<itwill@happen.com> wrote in message
news:1113220676.2534c7e36e680aad5df6bd42a7458ee7@teranews...
TW wrote:
Surprise surprise..
The defector, code-named "Curveball," spoke with alarming specificity
about
Iraq's alleged biological weapons programs and fleet of mobile labs.
But postwar investigations showed that he wasn't even in the country
at times when he claimed to have taken part in illicit weapons work.
Post war.
LOL! You fucking simpleton - guess you missed these bits...
"But there were problems with Curveball's claims at an early stage.
Some CIA officials noted that Curveball's memory showed significant
"improvement" as he pursued a European immigration deal and
deteriorated when it was granted.
No surprise here, informants often clam up after they get what they
wanted.
And they often embelish/lie to get what they want, too. No sense in
even using them, is there?
But he was Bush's best source of propaganda to start the war !
Woods
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| User: "Woodswun" |
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| Title: Re: WMD intelligence source was aloholic and congenital liar. |
13 Apr 2005 07:51:28 PM |
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Perseid wrote:
Woodswun <woodswun@tepidmail.com> Spat the Words
itwill@happen.com wrote:
TW wrote:
<itwill@happen.com> wrote in message
news:1113220676.2534c7e36e680aad5df6bd42a7458ee7@teranews...
TW wrote:
Surprise surprise..
The defector, code-named "Curveball," spoke with alarming specificity
about
Iraq's alleged biological weapons programs and fleet of mobile labs.
But postwar investigations showed that he wasn't even in the country
at times when he claimed to have taken part in illicit weapons work.
Post war.
LOL! You fucking simpleton - guess you missed these bits...
"But there were problems with Curveball's claims at an early stage.
Some CIA officials noted that Curveball's memory showed significant
"improvement" as he pursued a European immigration deal and
deteriorated when it was granted.
No surprise here, informants often clam up after they get what they
wanted.
And they often embelish/lie to get what they want, too. No sense in
even using them, is there?
But he was Bush's best source of propaganda to start the war !
Yeah, and I'll bet Bush looked real hard to find a source like that!
Woods
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| User: "Marvin The Paranoid Android" |
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| Title: Re: WMD intelligence source was aloholic and congenital liar. |
06 Apr 2005 07:36:24 AM |
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tw wrote:
Surprise surprise..
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2026&ncid=716&e=26&u=/latime
sts/20050401/ts_latimes/intelligenceanalystswhiffedonacurveball
WASHINGTON - Prewar claims by the United States that Iraq was producing
biological weapons were based almost entirely on accounts from a defector
who was described as "crazy" by his intelligence handlers and a "congenital
liar" by his friends.
<snip>
The U.S. had to be sure tho ...
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