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TAIWAN TINDERBOX
China to attack Taipei in 2006?
Official, expert agree strike is coming
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A top Taiwanese defense official and an expert on the Chinese military
both said yesterday Beijing is ready, willing and able to attack the
island soon.
The Peoples Liberation Army has the capability to blockade Taiwan
using missile-strike zones, George Washington University professor
David Shambaugh told the Foreign Correspondents Club in Beijing.
The world should not be surprised if the mainland makes the move
against Taiwan in 2006, he added.
"The PLA is increasingly able and willing to use a whole range of
means to threaten Taiwan – electronic, naval, air, missiles, special
operations," said Shambaugh. "[The PLA] has been preparing since the
1996 missile crisis to implement a spectrum of capabilities.
He added: "[Taiwanese President] Chen Shui-bian set the timeline – in
2006 he will amend the constitution, and there is no belief whatsoever
in Beijing that it will just be a partial amendment. His inauguration
speech was a red rag to a bull, and the PLA is preparing
diplomatically and militarily."
Shambaugh refused to speculate on possible scenarios for a PLA attack.
Nor would he comment on whether the U.S. would intervene. But he did
say he doubted the ability of Taiwan's military to withstand Chinese
attack.
Taiwan spent $6.4 billion on weapons procurement in 2000 and this year
is looking at additional weapons purchases amounting to $18 billion –
spending that would come on top of the island's annual defense budget
of nearly $10 billion. The U.S. military has sent hundreds of software
experts to Taiwan to help its forces upgrade their military
preparedness, especially in the use of Patriot anti-missile systems.
"Taiwan's self-defense capabilities have been wanting in many areas,"
Shambaugh said. "If you're focused on hardware, you're missing the big
picture. There still is a major question on how well Taiwan is
absorbing the weapons that are being sold to them and the answer is
not that well."
Meanwhile, Taiwan's Vice Defense Minister Tsai Ming-hsien said the
Chinese communist forces might attack the island in the coming years
and called for the passage of a special budget seeking to boost the
island's military might.
"The Chinese Communists are likely to conduct small-scale or partial
attacks in 2006 or 2008," Tsai said in Parliament.
Asked why he thought the Chinese military would attack during that
period, Tsai said because by "that time they may have acquired air and
naval superiority (over Taiwan)" following Beijing's persistent arms
build-up.
Though some military analysts believe Taiwan still has the ability to
defend itself against a Chinese attack, Shambaugh said the PLA now has
the edge.
"Some say the PLA will tip the balance by 2008, but I'll say they've
already tipped the balance," he said. "The PLA is already superior to
the forces in Taiwan."
The PLA navy has 65 surface warships and 35 submarines – a small fleet
when compared to the blue-water navies of the United States or Russia.
"How hard is it to blockade Taiwan?" he asked. "You're only talking
about two ports and one naval base. The PLA has invented a new form of
blockade with its missile-strike zones. When the PLA designates an
area off Taiwan a missile-strike zone, no ship will dare cross the
zone."
Tsai, meanwhile, urged approval of a special outlay for Taiwan's
purchase of eight submarines, a modified version of the Patriot
anti-missile systems PAC-III and a fleet of anti-submarine aircraft
over a 15-year period commencing in 2005.
China has repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan should the island
declare formal independence.
Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence Democratic
Progressive Party has pledged to amend the constitution before
retiring in 2008 to reflect his group's separatist stance.
The DPP government insists the current constitution, enacted by the
former Kuomintang government, must be dramatically changed to meet
Taiwan's needs, but Beijing sees the attempt as a step towards formal
independence.
The U.S. Defense Department warned in a report last month that China
was developing "credible military options" to prevent Taiwan from
achieving independence, including tools to discourage the United
States from coming to the island's aid in a conflict with the
mainland.
Separately, the defense ministry issued a statement denying a U.S.
report suggesting Taiwan could repel a Chinese attack by bombing
China's Three Gorges Dam.
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