www.nzherald.com
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Al Qaeda seen shifting to 'terror consultant' role
25.11.2003
3.00pm
BERLIN - Emerging details of last week's Istanbul suicide bombings
support the idea that al Qaeda is becoming more of a terror
"consultancy" and less of a direct actor, security analysts say.
Most see al Qaeda's hand behind the car bombs that blew up two
synagogues, the British consulate and the offices of British-based
banking group HSBC, even if Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has
cautioned that the link is not yet proven.
The car bombers were all Turks from the small southeast town of
Bingol, known as a fundamentalist centre, and Erdogan said they had
global connections. Local people and media reports said three had
attended al Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan.
Experts said this fits a pattern of attacks since September 11 in
which al Qaeda's core operatives have increasingly played a background
role: supplying know-how, and possibly finance, but leaving it to
local actors to carry out individual missions.
"Al Qaeda has moved to a 'second generation' of structures and
operational capability," said David Claridge, managing director of
Janusian Security Risk Management in London.
"There clearly is some remaining (organisational) core, but that core
is no longer involved in operations at the sharp end."
Analysts offer competing metaphors to describe the modus operandi of
al Qaeda since late 2001, when US forces drove it from its Afghan
bases and captured or killed key leaders as President George W. Bush
launched his war on terror.
Some see it as an international terror "university" or consultancy;
others liken it to a franchising operation, endorsing approved
operations around the world with the cachet of its feared global
"brand".
"The old, damaged military organisation of al Qaeda has undergone a
transformation to terror sponsor. That means Osama bin Laden, Ayman
al-Zawahiri (his deputy) and others are more active today in the sense
of franchising terrorism," said Berndt Georg Thamm, a German writer on
security issues.
This meant local groups could tap into Qaeda's expertise to make
contacts with like-minded networks and "order up" logistical support,
financial help and advice on how to prepare and transport explosives.
"The re-organised al Qaeda consists of a very loose network of about
30 violent Islamist groups which are spread over the whole Muslim
world," Thamm said.
"The network today is more virulent, essentially harder to grasp hold
of and a lot harder to combat than a quasi-military terror group that
is based in a single place."
Some experts believe the obsession of Western media and public opinion
with al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden obscures the fact they have inspired
a much wider global Islamist cause, dedicated to the waging of jihad
(holy war).
Experts and intelligence chiefs see bin Laden still playing an
important background role, but mainly as a symbol and preacher,
periodically reinforcing the jihadist message with messages broadcast
on Arabic television stations.
Individual militant groups have autonomous power to implement that
agenda through specific attacks, with no need for specific central
orders on what targets to hit.
"Al Qaeda has very successfully managed to create the conditions under
which it can unleash these groups, either directly or indirectly,"
Claridge said.
"By committing the September 11 attacks, in particular, it
significantly radicalised and demonstrated to a whole range of groups
around the world that they can have impact if they shift their focus
away from immediate domestic concerns towards international concerns."
Some experts argue that al Qaeda is already more of an ideology than
an organisation.
"I'm not sure there exists at all a centralist entity with command and
control," said French analyst Xavier Raufer.
"I think more and more (that) al Qaeda, if it is an entity at all,
will become a clearing house for finances and intellectual resources,"
Claridge said.
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